There is an old-and-in-bad-taste game of celebrity dead-pool. The object is to pick famous people who will die in the next six months. Points are scored inversely to age and also for high profile picks that nobody else guesses.
As I said, it is in bad taste.
With a small bunch of hedge fund managers I play a less macabre version of that game. Whether it is in bad taste or not I will let you (dear reader) decide.
We call it CEO dead-pool.
The job is to pick CEOs of large companies (more points for larger companies) who will in the next 18 months either be sacked or forced to resign in disgrace.
Extra points if the CEO had a fine reputation or if the company was very large. Double-points if you can predict the thing that causes the disgrace. [People who play this game get very interested in which CEOs are having affairs whilst espousing moral-conservative values...]
This game is a way of telling which hedge-fund managers really know the companies and management they are invested in. For us it is work - but it has a nice non-monetary way of keeping score. It is highly equalizing between the lowly analyst and the big-name manager. (Some managers excuse their lack of specificity by complaining that there are just too many candidates...)
This is a formal invite for suggestions/entries. A pick of one or two is fine (sent by email). In June 2014 I will announce the winner. Bragging rights are worth something. For a junior being the winner is probably worth a job. (Plenty of hedge funds want young analysts who really know their stuff. And what better way is there to prove you really know your stuff?)
If there are not enough good entries I might reveal my pick - to get the ball rolling...
PS. I would love Bess Levin to link this post. I am sure her readers could come up with some really good suggestions...
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. Mr. Hempton may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Hempton's recommendations. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.