Thursday, July 17, 2008

Things I got right and wrong

In a previous post I referred to a history of US finance I wrote in the first half of 2007.

Most (but by no means all) of that document reads pretty well.

Time makes most predictions in the stock market look awful.

There are few here that bear repeating.

One paragraph is as follows:

For American banks in general there are few credit risks we can identify. [Oops - I really wrote that...] There are exceptions - regional banks with undiversified Florida apartment construction loans...
There is some redemption in that paragraph. The regional bank I was referring to was Bank United. See this stock price chart...

In the same document I noted Washington Mutual had a massive subprime mortgage exposure but I thought that it was not existentially threatened. Well its deeply subordinated debt is trading at 30c in the dollar - which sounds pretty existential to me.


All this is to prove that there is a reason that stock-pickers shouldn't make too many public pronouncements. Humble pie will be the bloggers diet.


I have a short idea I am working on. The company just put out a record profit. Humble pie coming up!!!


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