Friday, July 4, 2008

Somthing to say for getting old - or just ignoring survival bias

Getting old is better than the alternative.

But Floyd Norris suggests that it seems to be better for your investing.

As I am getting older at the rate of one year per year Floyd's article should cheer me up. But it doesn't.

An article that suggests that older investors are less likely to be caught up in a bubble has a causality problem at its heart.

If you are likely to get caught up in a bubble you are unlikely to STILL be a professional investor by the time you are 50.

The article seems to suggest that age makes you wise.

But the alternative hypothesis is also possible: wisdom that allows you to grow old (and stay in business).

And if that is the case getting older at the rate of one year per year has fewer benefits than I hoped.

No comments:

General disclaimer

The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. You should assume Mr. Hempton and his affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in this blog, and such beneficial ownership can create a conflict of interest regarding the objectivity of this blog. Statements in the blog are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. Certain information in this blog concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by third-party sources. Mr. Hempton does not guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Such information may change after it is posted and Mr. Hempton is not obligated to, and may not, update it. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business, an offer of a security or a solicitation to purchase a security, or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.