Saturday, November 16, 2013

Fannie Mae: ain't it good to know that I have got a friend...

Longtime readers of this blog know that I took a position in Fannie Mae preferred stock at between 1 and 2 cents in the dollar. I even wrote a ten part blog series about it (start here).

That position has worked out better-than-okay. I still have a largish amount of it (though have sold more than half).

Today I learn that Bill Ackman is behind me - at least in the capital structure. He has purchased Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock (stock that is junior to my preferreds).

My interests are now roughly aligned with Bill Ackman.

So to all my fellow travellers (some of whom still own Fannie and Freddie prefs), Ain't it good to know that you've got a friend.



Anonymous said...

I owe you something nice. I happened to be led here many years ago by a chance comment you left on Felix Salmons blog. I thought your idea was sound and took the same chance and have held on ever since. Just wanted to say thanks.

John Hempton said...

To anonymous. Send me an email. As for something nice, I am partial to a good bottle of wine.

Breakfast in Bronte cafes are also nice.


Stocks DD said...

John - What is the "newco" business worth in your opinion ?

unicor exploracion said...

Letgoofmyfannie said...

Thank you Mr. Hempton,

Please where may I send you a bottle of wine?

I still recall the day you posted on the Yahoo Message Board :)

Thank you for helping me understand something I otherwise would likely have missed!

Cheers Mate!


Anonymous said...

You've got more than a friend, it's a party;

John Hempton said...

The wine... Send me an email, or just the Bronte office...


Tal said...


I'd join the road at blog piece no. 5 or so.
Your idea had great risk/reward ratio

When things got tough in 2010, I went over the whole serious again and it gave me confidence to increase the position 5 folds.

I can not remember a similar situation where a very sophisticated analysis is being served in a way that when you read it once you clearly understand the investment thesis

I would like to thank you for a work well done!

dearieme said...

I'm game for lashing out for a bottle of wine; what would you like to recommend now?

Anonymous said...

Great trade Hempton, but I'm still not sure I buy the bull thesis. As I understand it, it will take a major legislative effort to pull the GSEs out of the situation where the vast majority of the profits accrue to the US Treasury.

Given the legislative deadlock between the House and Senate I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Anonymous said...

In regards to the song selection, I like this one better:

The sniping going on between fund managers, while at times is seemingly valid, also feels unnecessary and counterproductive at the same time.

Stocks DD said...

John, What are your thoughts on the Court challenge to Net sweep agreement ? Assuming govt gets out of the way after their preferreds are paid, What do you think is the value of Fannie Mae & Freddie mac enterprise.

I strongly think Ackman is betting the Dec 6th court challenge goes in favor of investors, which would mean ALL THE UPSIDE WILL GO TO COMMON EQUITY. There is more upside in the common equity considering the value of the enterprise. Most preferred you could make at the most 3-4 times (considering they are trading at 30 cents to a dollar). With Commons upside is likely >10 times. Would love to hear your thoughts.

CrocodileChuck said...


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