Friday, December 6, 2013
The Interoil-Total deal
Interoil did a deal - maybe a very important deal - with the French oil major Total.
The problem is that the press release issued by Interoil is dramatically different to the press release issued by Total.
This link is the Interoil press release.
And here is the Total release.
After reading these it is seemingly impossible to even agree on the facts.
No wonder genuinely held opinions differ.
John
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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. You should assume Mr. Hempton and his affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in this blog, and such beneficial ownership can create a conflict of interest regarding the objectivity of this blog. Statements in the blog are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. Certain information in this blog concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by third-party sources. Mr. Hempton does not guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Such information may change after it is posted and Mr. Hempton is not obligated to, and may not, update it. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business, an offer of a security or a solicitation to purchase a security, or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.
2 comments:
Total was always perceived to have returned too much capital to shareholders and not invested enough in future production. I guess InterOil is what you get when looking for girls to dance at 3am in the morning. That said IOC has R Chandler sitting in its corner, albeit he screwed up on SinoForrest, I never would fancy being short against R Chandler, he makes Warren B's track record look average given he apparently doesnt leverage and nor does he sell float (premium) all day long or write fanciful puts. However like Warren, Richard does get deals you or I can not... see GDG LN for example. Maybe Total should cast its eye to Persia per Eni, Tehran safer than Port Morseby
Based on comments during the conference call, the two releases can be tied together. Total's number assumes IOC's low resource number (3.5Tmfe), and it assumes that the parties do a back-end sale of part of the interest and nets out Total's proceeds from that sale. If you gross up Total's number for the assumed back-end sale, you get $1.5B, the same as IOC's low-end number.
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