Saturday, August 6, 2016

So which position will Mr Ackman exit: Herbalife or Valeant

Bill Ackman just exited his large position in Canadian Pacific.

This was a stunningly successful position: genuinely I wish I had done it.

It also produces a very large taxable gain.

Mr Ackman however has been producing less-than-stellar performance for his Pershing Square fund.

So at the moment he is leaving his clients with large losses plus a large tax bill. I can't imagine they would be thrilled with that.

Logically then Bill Ackman will wipe his taxable gain by reducing or exiting one of his large losing positions - either the short on Herbalife or the long on Valeant.

I really don't have any insight into which - but he is on the board of Valeant and that makes moving the Valeant position more problematic.

Thoughts anyone?




John

PS. This observation is not original. I received similar from at least three separate emails.

16 comments:

  1. I imagine the overwhelming proportion of his investors funds are from institutions and thus non-taxable. As for himself and the rest of the taxable accounts, I imagine you're right, but I think he has a few other positions in negative territory besides hlf/vrx.

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  2. Schadenfreude Mr. Hempton ?

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  3. He will not be exiting either one. Herbalife is a pyramid scheme. The FTC chairman was asked if Herbalife was not a pyramid scheme and she responded saying we would not agree with that statement. Which basically is her way of saying they are a pyramid scheme. he also just restructured his Valeant options, why would he adjust his options for longer term if he was planning to exit ??... He will be looking to take that cash into a new position.

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  4. I recall him saying a large portion of his short exposure is in the form of put options. Presumable they will expire worthless (assuming some had an Expiry in 2016) and provide the capital loss to offset the CP gains.

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  5. Im not sure his closed end vehicle PSH NA will care much about the taxable issue.

    Speaking of Netherlands Antilles listings, have you ever looked at HAL Trust, (HAL NA), amazingly unknown but a blindingly impressive record from a true investor that no one has heard of.

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  6. The CP exit would seem to foreshadow a Valeant exit as the short HLF position losses would not match the LTG eligibility of the CP gains.

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  7. ALTHOUGH ACKMAN IS STUPID 8 POSISTIONS

    BLOOMBERG GAVE HIM THE BEST RAR ON THE STREET WHATTTTTTT

    HE IS A CRAFTY EGO CENTRIC SCHOOLYARD CRYBABY

    I SAY ITS NEITHER HE HAS OTHER LOSSES AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING

    HIS EGO IS IN THE WAY OF MAKING RATIONAL SENSE

    AS WESAY IN BOSTON WE WOULD RATHER LAUGH AT A WOUNDEN PIGEON THAN A FOOL IN A CASKET

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  8. ACKMAN WILL JUST BE WIPED AWAY WHEN THIS WHOLE PAPER SCAM OF THE WORLDS LARGEST PONZI SCHEM GRINDS TO A HALT


    FIGHT ON

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  9. http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-rates-traders-roll-the-dice-in-the-bbsw-casino-20160518-goxpcn.html

    http://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/can-we-trust-the-bbsw/

    http://www.standard.co.uk/business/michael-spencer-icap-founder-tory-grandee-and-party-animal-looks-forward-to-life-after-tullett-a3129936.html

    Same party animals being paid their bonuses for 'facilitating'.

    Not to worry - a name change will solve the problem of google searches.

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  10. Linette Lopez of Business Insider said in an article that it appears Ackman has about $430M in redemptions coming from Pershing Square.

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  11. My guess: He will drop his HLF short, and he will do it over a weekend, buying shares through brokers from several institutional holders who will sell at a market premium. To be honest, we don't even know how much equity he really is short anymore. Could be a lot of talking and very little short equity and just sitting on put options.

    With his size in Valeant, despite good volume there, would it not present much more potential return than any possible move in HLF..

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  12. sean:
    the caps is so boston: yellin, screaming, ny wannabees.
    AS WESAY IN BOSTON WE WOULD RATHER LAUGH AT A WOUNDEN PIGEON THAN A FOOL IN A CASKET

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  13. Ackman already has a taxable loss in HLF when he covered his short and went to derivatives.

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  14. Just throwing this in here

    From some blogger tracking PSH portfolio.

    Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX): VRX was Ackman's largest position at 24.90% of the US long portfolio as of Q3 2015. The following quarter saw a ~15% reduction while there was a ~30% increase last quarter. The stake was established in Q1 2015 at a cost-basis of $196. The stock currently trades at $26.60.

    now, that is a long ride down.

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  15. Personally, would love a Mr Hempton comment on this. There are so many possible scenarios and outcomes here.


    Seekingalpha interesting speculation/rumour sharing (Aug 24)

    "Adding another twist to the drama over Herbalife (NYSE:HLF), Jefferies has been looking for the past month to find buyers for Carl Icahn's 18% (roughly $1B) stake in the company, according to David Benoit in the WSJ.As if the idea of Herbalife's largest shareholder exiting wasn't enough of a story, the report also says Bill Ackman was among a possible group of buyers.Icahn's sale, of course, would come just weeks after he expressed renewed confidence in the company following the FTC settlement, but he's been a seller of a number of stocks this year amid what he sees as a bubbly stock market.That Ackman would consider buying isn't so surprising given the squeeze his short position is in."

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