Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Solar panel prices continue to fall

Guidance from Trina and other solar manufacturers was for a wholesale price to be above $1 per watt.

So I got this email from my local supplier today suggesting retail prices far below that:

Dear Client:
Just a quick note that Powerark Solar is promoting a Christmas sale on BLD solar panels, the brochure and specs are attached.
BLD panel pricelist:
190w: 95cents for 1 pallet (58pcs), 93cents for 2 pallets (116pcs)
250w (60cells): 99cent for 1 pallet (40pcs).
We are also supplying Alex Solar panel, and various brands of inverter including Ever-Solar, SMA, Afore (double MPP Trackers), JFY and APS Micro-Inverter, please feel free to contact us if interested.

Best Regards,
Will Li
Powerark Solar Pty Ltd
Add: 26 James Street, Lidcombe, NSW 2141
Tel: 1300 887 ***; (02) 9460 ***
Fax :(02) 9437 ***
Website: www.powerarksolar.com.au
Mob: 0422266***
Email: wil@pow***.com


  1. Would you mind providing some context? How much were they in 2000? 2005? 2009? 2010?

  2. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/as-solar-sales-plummet-in-spain-r-os-renovables-heads-overseas.html

    I thought they were looking forward to Spain coming online or similar?

  3. BLD and Alex are 2nd or 3rd tier manufacturers. I'm sure Trina and other 1st tiers get better prices, obviously still not good, probably still unprofitable in Q4. But after the inventory liquidation/write-off complete they will be profitable again, unless Europe spectacularly implodes and kills off any demand.

  4. 1.2 dollar pricing for a single panel in the us on trina solar, http://www.pvpower.com/trina-230w-solar-panel.aspx

  5. Overcapacity is still rampant - module, wafer, poly. Only reason why inventory is liquidating is b.c. all these guys are running plants at low utilizations.

    GCL's expanding massively still on poly / wafer and they set price. They're selling at $0.27-.28/W wafers.

    Bad for wafer pricing. Bad for poly pricing (OCI / Wacker / Hemlock / Tokuyama). Bad for wafer manufacturers.

    Overcapacity means either utilizations stay terrible or price needs to keep falling...second leg of collapse not only should but needs to occur. We're just in a lull.

  6. Agreed on poly price at least. They need to keep coming down a lot more. Margins too high at these companies relatively to its overcapacity / 0 wafer margins.

  7. Probably this is old news for you, but for me - I'm just an amateur bystander - this was interesting:


    Although China has some of the world's lowest level of foreign debt and official government debt, the Chinese government and state owned banks and enterprises actually owe an enormous amount of debt to domestic financial institutions and households. This presentation first catalogs the different segments of debt owed by the Chinese government and related entities and the claimants on this debt. It then discusses some implications for future public policies in China.

  8. Hi John, great work on the blog as usual. Quick question/gripe on put options. I own some December $7.5 puts on a dicey outfit called Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT). The investment thesis worked out nicely, ABAT was delisted from NASDAQ and has relisted on the Pink Sheets, where it last traded around $0.35. However, the OCC in its infinite wisdom is using the last trading price on NASDAQ of $0.98. Seems grossly unfair to me. I guess the only option would be to exercise the Put and go short - but the particular broker I have used for the position will not let you short OTC stocks - hence position will get closed out at $0.98. Anything I am missing? Seems unfair!


  9. In the past I have just exercised the options - but hey - that is a high quality problem.

  10. Sambo,
    Why not buy the stock at market prices then exercise? Am I missing something?

  11. Hi John,

    Any good accounting blogs/sites to recommend?