Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Bedtime reading
I plan on reading AT&Ts annual report cover to cover. We own the stock.
I hope not to fall asleep.
Being a hedge fund manager is not entirely glamorous.
John
Friday, April 19, 2013
Scared - Verizon, Vodafone
But there was an a quote in yesterday's Verizon conference call that was somewhat contrary to my prior opinion...
With respect to Vodafone, obviously, we made a public announcement on April 2, and I would reference all of you back to that announcement. Of course, as we've always said before, we are very interested in acquiring the 45% stake in Verizon Wireless that we don't already own. I will say, though, that there has been a lot of speculation about the tax consequences of a purchase of this 45%, and we are extremely confident that such a transaction could be accomplished in a manner that is very tax-efficient and would not result in a tax on the gain in that stake. So beyond that, I don't think there is really much else to say. So with that, I will pass it on to the next question.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Speculating about the future of Apple in China
This post is a speculation from my experience of an Android phone I think from Saudi Arabia.
I am speculating that Apple is going to have a much tougher time in China than anyone imagines.
To see why you need to go back to my original Samsung Desire HD - which I blogged about in June 2011.
I purchased this phone on Ebay and it came shiny and new in a white box, however the operating system was dodgy. It had a limited choice of language - Arabic, English (UK), Farsi, Urdu.
Most importantly it did not contain any access to the Google market place (Google's equivalent of the App store). It had limited apps and no possibility of adding more. It contained a non-standard web browser and a non-standard email client (leaving open the possibility of the State watching what I wrote and said). It was not possible to put a Voice over IP app on it. That phone was almost useless - a smartphone without apps. The smartphone of an oppressive regime.
The solution was to root it and load something great (insanely great even). I loved that phone until my wife put it through the washing machine.
Saudi Arabia (or whatever Middle East state it was) could demand smart-phones that were neutered because - well - they had a copy of the source code for Android and could demand and implement any changes they liked. Open source is a force for good or evil and in this case it was evil. Google could distribute "good Android" and the oppressive authorities could force their phone companies to distribute "bad Android". There will always be an elite who can root their phone and load CyanogenMod or similar - but that will be an elite.
Will this be the oppressive phone of China?
My guess is that will suit China just fine. The phone companies are controlled by the State and they will sell handsets controlled by the State.
You can't really do that with Apple. Apple is not open source and there is no root operating system that an oppressive state can modify to suit their whims. So the State needs to lean on Apple to do their evil work for them - and that doesn't work brilliantly. Apple is not going to give away its secrets and the Chinese state will demand more and more.
====
So I am assuming that if Apple goes mass-market in China it will sell systems with enough "apologies" to the cultural differences of China. Those "apologies" will make a rooted Android massively superior to a botched-up Apple. The elite will want their Samsungs... Some bulls on Apple and China may be just flat wrong...
Just a speculation...
J
Postscript. The WSJ comes to a similar conclusion.... The key observation - Android in China comes without an App Store as per my Saudi phone... Here is the quote:
Ironically, Google's Android mobile operating system dominates the smartphone market in China, despite the company's strained relationship with the government. But those devices don't come with Google services that are standard elsewhere, such as YouTube, search, and Google Maps. Also, without access to the Google Play store, Chinese users have a weaker selection of apps to choose from.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Mt Gox, bitcoin, Hordes of Chaos, Demons and armies of Orcs...
If you want to understand bitcoin the best explanation I have found is on the self-evident blog...
However it is the history of MtGox - that amuses me...
MtGox started as an exchange for trading cards in a fantasy role playing game. It stands for Magic The Gathering Online Exchange.
But between trading playing cards and trading encrypted tokens certified with a file-shared registry it distributed an online game called "The Far Wilds". Archive.org preserves some of the website:
The Far Wilds is a unique turn based strategy game. Configure an army and fight on a random battlefield.
Battles are dynamic. You must adapt your strategy to different battlefields conditions and opponents....
The Celestial Imperium moves out toward the northern wastes to respond to the rising tide of the Hordes of Chaos. Disciplined and Powerful Psions wield their minds against twisted Mutants. Priests and Paladins of Xosa battle with Demons and armies of Orcs across the wilderness of the Borderlands.
John
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Once every few years I feel compelled to republish Alan Sokal
A link. Driven by a comment on a recent blog post.
http://www.physics.nyu.edu/sokal/transgress_v2/transgress_v2_singlefile.html
J
PS. For those who need an explanation of perhaps the funniest thing I have read in my life - a reasonable summary is here on Wikipedia.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Apology to CUPID PLC
Dear readers of my blog
Following correspondence received from Cupid plc's solicitors, I have removed recent blogs concerning Cupid from my website. I apologise for any factual inaccuracies contained within those blogs and I wish Cupid good fortune in its future endeavours.
John Hempton
JCPonderings
We must do something.
This is something.
Therefore we must do it.
http://jcponderings.weebly.com/
PS - The link to this article in Vogue is worth the price of admission ... http://www.vogue.com/vogue-daily/article/what-price-glory-jcpenney/#1
Saturday, April 6, 2013
The HP Board Changes
Over the years I have written to several companies (at least a dozen) to ask/query/complain or speculate about funky things in accounts. The reaction is often hostile and usually the more hostile and the less transparent the worse the situation is. Sometimes there is some smoke and some fire but not quite in the form I surmised. [This is a problem with misleading disclosure. When disclosure is misleading you can often accurately surmise things are not right and not as they seem and be totally wrong when you take a guess at the underlying reality...]
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Cupid's profile count
This post has been removed an an apology can be found here.
I apologize to my readers for any inconvenience.
John
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Cupid PLC's strange balance sheet
This post has been removed an an apology can be found here.
I apologize to my readers for any inconvenience.
John
General disclaimer
The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. You should assume Mr. Hempton and his affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in this blog, and such beneficial ownership can create a conflict of interest regarding the objectivity of this blog. Statements in the blog are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors. Certain information in this blog concerning economic trends and performance is based on or derived from information provided by third-party sources. Mr. Hempton does not guarantee the accuracy of such information and has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such information or the assumptions on which such information is based. Such information may change after it is posted and Mr. Hempton is not obligated to, and may not, update it. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business, an offer of a security or a solicitation to purchase a security, or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author. In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.