Saturday, August 6, 2016

So which position will Mr Ackman exit: Herbalife or Valeant

Bill Ackman just exited his large position in Canadian Pacific.

This was a stunningly successful position: genuinely I wish I had done it.

It also produces a very large taxable gain.

Mr Ackman however has been producing less-than-stellar performance for his Pershing Square fund.

So at the moment he is leaving his clients with large losses plus a large tax bill. I can't imagine they would be thrilled with that.

Logically then Bill Ackman will wipe his taxable gain by reducing or exiting one of his large losing positions - either the short on Herbalife or the long on Valeant.

I really don't have any insight into which - but he is on the board of Valeant and that makes moving the Valeant position more problematic.

Thoughts anyone?




John

PS. This observation is not original. I received similar from at least three separate emails.

16 comments:

The Shadow Banker said...

I imagine the overwhelming proportion of his investors funds are from institutions and thus non-taxable. As for himself and the rest of the taxable accounts, I imagine you're right, but I think he has a few other positions in negative territory besides hlf/vrx.

Anonymous said...

Schadenfreude Mr. Hempton ?

Anonymous said...

He will not be exiting either one. Herbalife is a pyramid scheme. The FTC chairman was asked if Herbalife was not a pyramid scheme and she responded saying we would not agree with that statement. Which basically is her way of saying they are a pyramid scheme. he also just restructured his Valeant options, why would he adjust his options for longer term if he was planning to exit ??... He will be looking to take that cash into a new position.

GlobalTrader said...

PAH

Anonymous said...

I recall him saying a large portion of his short exposure is in the form of put options. Presumable they will expire worthless (assuming some had an Expiry in 2016) and provide the capital loss to offset the CP gains.

Sandymount said...

Im not sure his closed end vehicle PSH NA will care much about the taxable issue.

Speaking of Netherlands Antilles listings, have you ever looked at HAL Trust, (HAL NA), amazingly unknown but a blindingly impressive record from a true investor that no one has heard of.

Skrambled80s said...

The CP exit would seem to foreshadow a Valeant exit as the short HLF position losses would not match the LTG eligibility of the CP gains.

Sean Sheen said...

ALTHOUGH ACKMAN IS STUPID 8 POSISTIONS

BLOOMBERG GAVE HIM THE BEST RAR ON THE STREET WHATTTTTTT

HE IS A CRAFTY EGO CENTRIC SCHOOLYARD CRYBABY

I SAY ITS NEITHER HE HAS OTHER LOSSES AND CREATIVE ACCOUNTING

HIS EGO IS IN THE WAY OF MAKING RATIONAL SENSE

AS WESAY IN BOSTON WE WOULD RATHER LAUGH AT A WOUNDEN PIGEON THAN A FOOL IN A CASKET

BLACK SWAN said...

ACKMAN WILL JUST BE WIPED AWAY WHEN THIS WHOLE PAPER SCAM OF THE WORLDS LARGEST PONZI SCHEM GRINDS TO A HALT


FIGHT ON

Anonymous said...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/westpac-rates-traders-roll-the-dice-in-the-bbsw-casino-20160518-goxpcn.html

http://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/can-we-trust-the-bbsw/

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/michael-spencer-icap-founder-tory-grandee-and-party-animal-looks-forward-to-life-after-tullett-a3129936.html

Same party animals being paid their bonuses for 'facilitating'.

Not to worry - a name change will solve the problem of google searches.

Anonymous said...

Linette Lopez of Business Insider said in an article that it appears Ackman has about $430M in redemptions coming from Pershing Square.

Herbalifestudy said...

My guess: He will drop his HLF short, and he will do it over a weekend, buying shares through brokers from several institutional holders who will sell at a market premium. To be honest, we don't even know how much equity he really is short anymore. Could be a lot of talking and very little short equity and just sitting on put options.

With his size in Valeant, despite good volume there, would it not present much more potential return than any possible move in HLF..

Anonymous said...

sean:
the caps is so boston: yellin, screaming, ny wannabees.
AS WESAY IN BOSTON WE WOULD RATHER LAUGH AT A WOUNDEN PIGEON THAN A FOOL IN A CASKET

Anonymous said...

Ackman already has a taxable loss in HLF when he covered his short and went to derivatives.

Herbalifestudy said...

Just throwing this in here

From some blogger tracking PSH portfolio.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX): VRX was Ackman's largest position at 24.90% of the US long portfolio as of Q3 2015. The following quarter saw a ~15% reduction while there was a ~30% increase last quarter. The stake was established in Q1 2015 at a cost-basis of $196. The stock currently trades at $26.60.

now, that is a long ride down.

Herbalifestudy said...

Personally, would love a Mr Hempton comment on this. There are so many possible scenarios and outcomes here.


Seekingalpha interesting speculation/rumour sharing (Aug 24)

"Adding another twist to the drama over Herbalife (NYSE:HLF), Jefferies has been looking for the past month to find buyers for Carl Icahn's 18% (roughly $1B) stake in the company, according to David Benoit in the WSJ.As if the idea of Herbalife's largest shareholder exiting wasn't enough of a story, the report also says Bill Ackman was among a possible group of buyers.Icahn's sale, of course, would come just weeks after he expressed renewed confidence in the company following the FTC settlement, but he's been a seller of a number of stocks this year amid what he sees as a bubbly stock market.That Ackman would consider buying isn't so surprising given the squeeze his short position is in."

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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. Mr. Hempton may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Hempton's recommendations. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.  In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.