Thursday, February 11, 2016

Valeant - links

There are two blog posts (both anonymous) that you must read to understand the Valeant bear case. The first is an old one - by AZ Value:

http://azvalue.blogspot.com.au/2015/08/valeant-detailed-look-inside-dangerous.html

The second is recent - going through cash needs this year. Valeant will be in acute financial stress at some point this year.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/46398186-commsense/4788496-think-know-mike-pearson-feel-well


John

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing you're commsense on seeking alpha?..lol. and if so. what terrible analysis

longVRX said...

Both of those articles require us to believe that the Valeant management are lying crooks, more so than the mass murderer Merck and repeat criminal offender J&J, and that the ValueAct members on the board are either too stupid to pick up on it or are complicit in the deception.

Haven't we seen this movie before? I have just one word for you and your investors, John. Fairfax.

GlobalTrader said...

So pershing square who spends millions in analysts and lawyers every year is wrong about VRX cash needs this year but an anonymous dude who didn't even submit the article for review on SA (and hence, published as an instablog) is right. lol

Anonymous said...

@GlobalTrader

They were wrong about JCP...

Pereg25 said...

John was that just you on 60 minutes?? Showing the doomsayer around Sydney? Personally cannot wait for our day of reckoning down under.

obelix said...

Restating earnings according to today's announcement...

AS said...

John, you obviously did great work on Valeant, but one thing that can get you killed in the markets is placing ego above facts.

Given Valeant's just having confessed that a restatement of revenues is coming due to misbooking of sales and/or misrepresentation of its Philidor relationship, I think in the interest of honesty you owe a tip of the cap and a withdrawal of all your "Citron was wrong" rhetoric you've posted about Andrew's "phantom sales" assertion. It was all proven correct today.

GlobalTrader said...

"They were wrong about JCP..."
And right about 20+ stocks. Ackman has a huge track record and a large well paid team to help him. That includes laywers and other specialists. Thats why they don't think nonsense like 'VRX will be fined $10Billion because of phillidor!!!"

Dan Davies said...

Ackman has a huge track record

This still bugs me. Here's a trivia question - if you invested your money with John Hempton on the first day he began managing money, and I invested my money with Bill Ackman on the first day he began managing money, who would have more money today?

Two things to remember:

1) Pershing Square is not the first fund Ackman has managed; Bronte is not the first fund Hempton has managed.

2) Zero is an absorbing barrier for multiplicative stochastic processes.

Debaser said...

Ackman is a joke. He's off 50% now since August..... That shows total ill discipline with regard to risk control. He now needs a 100% performance just to get back to even! The guy is a shiny smile and a big ego and fooled himself into thinking he was smart.

GlobalTrader said...

Anyone with a brain would say Ackman is a far better manager. He has made 20% a year with billions, Hempton has made 20% a year with peanuts. Ackman last fund made 20% a year and then lost ~25% in the last year, hardly a disaster. His current fund gave back his 2014 performance, plus a bit more, again hardly a disaster

Dan Davies said...

Perhaps Bill could lend Valeant a few dozen analysts and lawyers? Although I am sure that Bill Ackman and Pershing Square have complete visibility over its financial performance and earnings outlook, the company itself appears to be having a few problems getting the FY results and the 2016 guidance together.

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The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. Mr. Hempton may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Hempton's recommendations. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.  In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.