Longtime readers of this blog know that I took a position in Fannie Mae preferred stock at between 1 and 2 cents in the dollar. I even wrote a ten part blog series about it (start here).
That position has worked out better-than-okay. I still have a largish amount of it (though have sold more than half).
Today I learn that Bill Ackman is behind me - at least in the capital structure. He has purchased Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock (stock that is junior to my preferreds).
My interests are now roughly aligned with Bill Ackman.
So to all my fellow travellers (some of whom still own Fannie and Freddie prefs), Ain't it good to know that you've got a friend.
John
13 comments:
I owe you something nice. I happened to be led here many years ago by a chance comment you left on Felix Salmons blog. I thought your idea was sound and took the same chance and have held on ever since. Just wanted to say thanks.
To anonymous. Send me an email. As for something nice, I am partial to a good bottle of wine.
Breakfast in Bronte cafes are also nice.
J
John - What is the "newco" business worth in your opinion ?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=94122179
Thank you Mr. Hempton,
Please where may I send you a bottle of wine?
I still recall the day you posted on the Yahoo Message Board :)
Thank you for helping me understand something I otherwise would likely have missed!
Cheers Mate!
--Letgoofmyfannie
You've got more than a friend, it's a party; http://www.cnbc.com/id/101197867.
The wine... Send me an email, or just the Bronte office...
J
John,
I'd join the road at blog piece no. 5 or so.
Your idea had great risk/reward ratio
When things got tough in 2010, I went over the whole serious again and it gave me confidence to increase the position 5 folds.
I can not remember a similar situation where a very sophisticated analysis is being served in a way that when you read it once you clearly understand the investment thesis
I would like to thank you for a work well done!
I'm game for lashing out for a bottle of wine; what would you like to recommend now?
Great trade Hempton, but I'm still not sure I buy the bull thesis. As I understand it, it will take a major legislative effort to pull the GSEs out of the situation where the vast majority of the profits accrue to the US Treasury.
Given the legislative deadlock between the House and Senate I don't see that changing anytime soon.
In regards to the song selection, I like this one better:
http://youtu.be/XRGd0gD0QNE
The sniping going on between fund managers, while at times is seemingly valid, also feels unnecessary and counterproductive at the same time.
John, What are your thoughts on the Court challenge to Net sweep agreement ? Assuming govt gets out of the way after their preferreds are paid, What do you think is the value of Fannie Mae & Freddie mac enterprise.
I strongly think Ackman is betting the Dec 6th court challenge goes in favor of investors, which would mean ALL THE UPSIDE WILL GO TO COMMON EQUITY. There is more upside in the common equity considering the value of the enterprise. Most preferred you could make at the most 3-4 times (considering they are trading at 30 cents to a dollar). With Commons upside is likely >10 times. Would love to hear your thoughts.
http://stocksdd.blogspot.com/2013/11/stocks-dd-cites-berkowitz.html
OUCH!
http://blog.rivast.com/?p=7640
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