Is it real, do you think? I've heard of people spoofing the shorts on Yahoo message boards, and I wouldn't put it past some of the seedier IR firms to do something like this with Citron.
Because, yeah, otherwise Left has indeed lost his mind and is in the "cash out and run away" phase of his career.
The worst part is that he uses the credibility he has earned to tell people, "Yes, there's fraud, but what's the harm in profiting from it now that we've exposed it?" The dividing line between honesty and corruption has been summed up by this release for all to take note.
I do see potential value in Longtop, but it resembles a call option and you couldn't make this too big a position. They do indeed sell software to large banks in China.
This could be like Parmalat and Satyam, where investors indiscriminately dumped the shares at the first opportunity. Both stocks did very well from the capitulation bottom and did indeed attract partial buyouts... private equity and Lactalis in the former instance, and Tech Mahindra in the latter instance.
I think that is a little harsh. My interpretation of the letter is there is option value and the stock is worth a 'punt'. I wouldn't underestimate the desperation of Chinese private equity wanting to put money to work. Someone behind the scheme may also want to take the company private to clean up the mess (they've made money through the IPO/various related parties transaction and just want to cover the tracks). This is not a value investment in traditional sense, but there is nuisance value. -CT
Well, maybe his last run in with the SEC was due to more than bad luck after all.
Having worked at a PE fund in Asia let me tell you: if its already blown up the only guys that would play this would be bondholders and last I checked Longtop never did a 144A / Reg S deal. Which leaves a bunch of dumbass Chinese banks that don't sell their loans to the sorts of people that might actually restructure a company.
if there were no customers that would certainly explain why competitors were unable to poach them.
ReplyDeleteIs it real, do you think? I've heard of people spoofing the shorts on Yahoo message boards, and I wouldn't put it past some of the seedier IR firms to do something like this with Citron.
ReplyDeleteBecause, yeah, otherwise Left has indeed lost his mind and is in the "cash out and run away" phase of his career.
All right, scratch my earlier comment. It's repeated on the Citron twitter.
ReplyDeleteBaffling.
(Huh, the word verification for this post is "slymen")
The worst part is that he uses the credibility he has earned to tell people, "Yes, there's fraud, but what's the harm in profiting from it now that we've exposed it?" The dividing line between honesty and corruption has been summed up by this release for all to take note.
ReplyDeleteI do see potential value in Longtop, but it resembles a call option and you couldn't make this too big a position. They do indeed sell software to large banks in China.
ReplyDeleteThis could be like Parmalat and Satyam, where investors indiscriminately dumped the shares at the first opportunity. Both stocks did very well from the capitulation bottom and did indeed attract partial buyouts... private equity and Lactalis in the former instance, and Tech Mahindra in the latter instance.
I think that is a little harsh. My interpretation of the letter is there is option value and the stock is worth a 'punt'. I wouldn't underestimate the desperation of Chinese private equity wanting to put money to work. Someone behind the scheme may also want to take the company private to clean up the mess (they've made money through the IPO/various related parties transaction and just want to cover the tracks). This is not a value investment in traditional sense, but there is nuisance value.
ReplyDelete-CT
Well, maybe his last run in with the SEC was due to more than bad luck after all.
ReplyDeleteHaving worked at a PE fund in Asia let me tell you: if its already blown up the only guys that would play this would be bondholders and last I checked Longtop never did a 144A / Reg S deal. Which leaves a bunch of dumbass Chinese banks that don't sell their loans to the sorts of people that might actually restructure a company.