Thursday, November 6, 2008

My number 2 blowup

Moodys has cut Ambac's rating to a level that triggers the GIGs to pay and hence causes a liquidity event.

The liquidity event can be prevented by the insurance commissioner who might yet come to the party (and I think should in the interest of his policy holders).  But if the insurance commission does not come to the party Ambac will file bankruptcy.


J

3 comments:

John Hempton said...

Essentially there are two outcomes here.

(a) the Wisconsin insurance commissioner allows Ambac to access insurance company funds to meet the GIGs or

(b) the company files bankruptcy and in bankruptcy the GICs get accelerated and the company accesses insurance company funds to meet the GICs.

Either outcome results in the insurance company funds being raided. Therefore it is unambiguously in the insurance commissioner's advantage to allow insurance company funds out.

But he needs to do it now. Not nice.

J

John Hempton said...

I do not want to boast about this - because there is pain out there. But I managed to sell and make a small profit.

I left a big profit on the table as Ambac touched $10.

Keith Hermosa said...

Don't apologize for being right. Boast for Christ's sake. The people who have destroyed the system and their enablers have, in every way, been boasting from the start. Now they're not only wrong, but they've been proven wrong about everything through time. Because it is not one wrong call that blows up the Western World, but massive fraud and theft over time.

So please boast. The few of us who pay attention are boasting too.

General disclaimer

The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Hempton. Mr. Hempton may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Hempton's recommendations. The commentary in this blog in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. In fact, it should not be relied upon in making investment decisions, ever. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.  In particular this blog is not directed for investment purposes at US Persons.