But I thought it pretty likely. If you asked me I would have thought 70% likely. The only problem being that the potential buyers have fires of their own to put out.
Anyway a buy-out by (say) Citi or JPM is not a great end for the common shareholders - but would be wonderful for the preference shareholders.
Nightmare for the preference shareholders is an FDIC takeover which would wipe the prefs as well as the common.
This is of course a wild ass speculative bet.
But here is a possibility that I hadn't thought of - which is a deal involving private equity consortiums. That would not be as good as being a pref shareholder in (say) Citi. I am not sure how legal this would be but these are desperate times - and something could happen.
I suspect the pref would be worth something in this scenario - but I would much prefer the company stick around to take advantage of the Paulson plan.
I am a little afraid here - this deal is becoming problematic. The news that Santander - often the dumbest bank on the block - has pulled out - is not good.
Washington Mutual bank explores takeover possibilities: report