Bondinvestor (whoever they may be) left a reasoned piece in the comments. It disagreed with my position on Magic outlined in this post.
I like people that disagree with me and I would love BondInvestor to get in contact...
My objections to this are that I am not sure that the bulk book is fully written off, nor am I sure that the book in 2007 will look anything like any previous year - as the last refinance of my rolling loans was onto Magic's book.
My further objection is that statutory capital deficiency happens way earlier than this - and stat capital deficiency will close the business as per TGIC.
But I remain to be convinced otherwise - and I have had a go at reconstructing Magic's loss triangles (with help from a reader) and we got not very far (probably because we gave up early).
If Bond Investor would like to share with me I would much appreciate it.
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