Tuesday, July 29, 2008

WaMu sub debt

As regular readers know I now am the proud owner of a (scary) position in WaMu subordinated debt. The reasons were explained here.

It is clear that the market disagrees with me. Here is a chart of the credit default swap. Its right up in Ford Motor territory...

I have had one reader disagreeing with my analysis and suggesting that WaMu losses could be $60 billion. They have not explained their estimate - so it doesn't help me much. The market is inherently estimating that 60 billion is possible.

60B strikes me as inherently implausible - but this blog exists so that the diaspora can point out my mistakes. I like being told why I am wrong.

So please - suggestions and quantifications devoutly desired.

Minor update and correction: The Series K is floating rate - but the floating rate is based on the $25 base. The series K is trading at a very small proportion of face. My calculations as to running yield are slightly (but only slightly) wrong. Thanks to a reader for this correction. I also own the series R which is a 7.75% fixed and I confused the coupons. I was more interested in the K (which is cheaper) essentially betting on solvency rather than current coupons... The R is convertible - but I am not that much interested in the conversion. Par is all I hope for...
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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2008/07/wamu-we-dont-have-any-choice.html

http://www.insidewamu.com/

July 29, 2008 at 5:51 AM
Jim said...

Accrued Interest took a cursory look at WaMu recently. It's here:

http://accruedint.blogspot.com/2008/07/wamu-we-dont-have-any-choice.html

July 29, 2008 at 7:38 AM

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