tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post837047332702900062..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Sino Forest: some ancient historyJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81554211191925921482011-07-02T04:57:41.734+10:002011-07-02T04:57:41.734+10:00A month on we have still not had any resignations ...A month on we have still not had any resignations (either executive staff or auditors), no suicides or mysterious deaths/disappearences and Carson block has not come out with any smoking guns after his chief claim was laughed at by analysts because of his inability to distinguish between the sale of standing timber and actual logging.<br /><br />With frauds there are usually very few parties involved; Enron was a couple of excutives; BreX was a geologist and one or two executives and Madoff was him and a small accounting operation.<br /><br />It would have been far more logical to stick to one province, a small accounting firm (earnst aand young has probably had 10 guys pass through the lead on this account whereas you could be assured of one guy at a small outfit sticking through it), one bank to underwrite bond issuances, one bank to bank with.<br /><br />The Chinese needed to start managing their forests. To do that they had to take it out of the hands of the common farmer because they were over logging and incapable of managing. If Sino Forest was not part of that plan then:<br /><br />a) the bureaau would not have come out out and openly denied the link between Sino and Yuda<br /><br />b) The $1.5Billion line with the Bank of China would have been pulled<br /><br />c) The business development Bank of China would have seized any accounts for the $50 million they just gave Sino<br /><br />d) Sino on the analyst call would have given fake intermidiary names, watched the stock go up and the Chairman would have pulled and flown off to anywhere but China where they don't get to have trials but his head would have ended up in another room then his body.<br /><br />Another interesting thing is that a single trade went through for 22 Million shares the day before Paulson had to legally announce that he was out completely. I can only guess it was him selling. Would you be the buyer knowing what the announcement would tank the stock? Isn't it neat that the amount of shares is just shy of making the buyer an insider?<br /><br />I have no doubt that there have been 'inconsistencies' with this company. The rest of the world works on bribes and strange government involvement but this will come out so squeeky clean that PWC will think that they have entered auditor heaven.<br /><br />You can't be a Fruad (China) and come up with $3trillion cash...They just do things a lot differently and the western world better get used to it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-56137673320027795182011-06-29T14:46:36.947+10:002011-06-29T14:46:36.947+10:00When did we start comparing a timber company to Co...When did we start comparing a timber company to Coca-Cola. I may be no expert, but do they have a special way of growing the trees? I though the edge was the land. is it not basically a commodity?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-89532460806540820842011-06-28T05:07:36.003+10:002011-06-28T05:07:36.003+10:00FYI - Not related to Sino - the institutions that ...FYI - Not related to Sino - the institutions that allowed NOG shares to be borrowed and then sold short noticed some US brokerages that by COB today, 6/27, those short positions needed to be closed. Retial brokerages rarely seem to have the access to short companies worth shorting and often, like Friday, announce the positions must be covered ASAP.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-33342968362774872562011-06-27T16:04:34.205+10:002011-06-27T16:04:34.205+10:00@Sino Forest Analyst
I guess it depends on your d...@Sino Forest Analyst<br /><br />I guess it depends on your definition of intelligent, but this article is probably one many haven't seen.<br /><br />http://susan-mallin.blogspot.com/search/label/muddy%20watersHesternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-91343719533045195122011-06-27T02:48:44.219+10:002011-06-27T02:48:44.219+10:00Other than metalaugmentor, anyone know of any inte...Other than metalaugmentor, anyone know of any intelligent or intelligent-sounding Sino Forest longs or long writeup?<br /><br /><br />My initial thoughts on Metalaugmentor:<br /><br /><br />(1) They seem to confuse plausibility with probability. <br /><br />(2) Sounds like the well intended folks back in 2005-2008 that were long CDOs. Their explanation is as confusing if not more confusing than that which they're seeking to describe<br /><br />(3) Their opinions are prefaced with so much fine print and hedging, I would not be surprised if they go short. <br /><br />(4) Not clear what their timber/forest credibility is... they point out Muddy Waters' limited experience yet their experience w metal commodities doesn't seem any better.sinoforestanalystnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-29448649640188832102011-06-26T13:42:43.356+10:002011-06-26T13:42:43.356+10:00"As my momma always used to tell me:
"S..."As my momma always used to tell me:<br /><br />"Son, never call a short-seller a retard. Just buy shares from him."<br /><br />True story."<br /><br />Actually, most studies done on the subject show that stocks with the highest percentages of short interest drastically underperform over the long term.Hesternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-18318298529030121582011-06-26T12:59:27.157+10:002011-06-26T12:59:27.157+10:00Shanghai jin Xiang Timber (SJXT) was founded in 19...Shanghai jin Xiang Timber (SJXT) was founded in 1997, Sino-forest was indeed a shareholder of it. In 1998, SJXT opened Shanghai Jin Xinag Timber Market, which was approved by China Forest Bureau.<br /><br />In China, Sino-forest did build wood product factories and seedleing nurseries, did buy forests and did plant trees. <br /><br />However, I have no doubt about Sino-forest is a fraud, because its core business, standing timber transactions since 2004, was mainly fabricated.James Caihttp://jamesanalysis.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-87009712278024443662011-06-26T12:38:00.459+10:002011-06-26T12:38:00.459+10:00has anyone stopped to consider that all of china i...has anyone stopped to consider that all of china is a fraud? that all the numbers in china are fraudulent? a bunch of skyscrapers can be just as misleading as artificial intermediaries...but the problem is, we'll never no because there's no transparency, that is until the chinese themselves panic. they are a people--hope this doesnt sound racist--that are prone to mass hysteria, for recent example see the run on salt after japan, and for an example from the last century, see killing 47 million of their own people. anyway, i think china is a total and complete fraud. chanos is right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-8959951249354228362011-06-26T10:39:21.329+10:002011-06-26T10:39:21.329+10:00As my momma always used to tell me:
"Son, ne...As my momma always used to tell me:<br /><br />"Son, never call a short-seller a retard. Just buy shares from him."<br /><br />True story.Michael Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10045827917076142231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-72412174428669259242011-06-26T06:42:43.064+10:002011-06-26T06:42:43.064+10:00Hey John you retard. Why don't you go ask Coc...Hey John you retard. Why don't you go ask Coca Cola for the ingredients to Coke and where they get them. Have you ever heard of corporate secrets?<br /><br />Your reporting makes me sick.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-62678028549143844452011-06-25T16:57:05.173+10:002011-06-25T16:57:05.173+10:00Because Sino is operating in an ever-changing mark...Because Sino is operating in an ever-changing market, their success can only be measured by how they serve their clients. That's for the future.<br /><br />It is a situation of 'their hands are on the plough and do not look back'. <br /><br />The past, because of the ever-changing market, may not be comparable. <br /><br />I would trust in the professionals and not Muddy. Sino's rebuttal of Globe and Mail makes sense to me. Following people is a communist custom. It doesn’t imply any special relationships. You may be in a shopping mall and get ear dived. <br /><br />Muddy is a one-man bank who acts like a foturne teller, i.e. teller of your fortune if you allow him. Sometimes he is right. Sometimes he is wrong. Right or wrong, he stands to gain. And he told you so. <br /><br />Why should those who trust in him have any problems now? I don't understand. It would be unfair to Muddy.<br /><br />Muddy has been wrong before and caused a lot of problems with another company, Orient Paper. Life goes on at Orient Paper. Shareholders lost.<br /><br />Bronte Capital does not have any problem with that? Surf the web. Try Wall St. Journal website.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81745083382205190502011-06-25T16:07:42.626+10:002011-06-25T16:07:42.626+10:00I don't see anything wrong with Sino Forest ba...I don't see anything wrong with Sino Forest based on your analysis and my understanding of the market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-69374940820048895502011-06-25T12:20:34.542+10:002011-06-25T12:20:34.542+10:00John, Keep it up, the more information the better....John, Keep it up, the more information the better. But details matter too. For example, the forest deals in the 1990s were for state-owned forests, no? And they were JVs for plantation operations, not timber rights? If so, we can't really compare the hectares then and now. On the other hand, it would be more than fair to point out that the JV model did not work in the long term for whatever reason, just like the purchased plantation model didn't work, just like the master agreement model ...?<br /><br />Also, by now you should know that Sino-Forest is probably not selling cut timber but standing trees, part of which has no harvest term (flipping) while part is 18 months (so a 2010 sale can theoretically be cut and sent to the mill in 2012), some is not pulpwood but logs for sawn lumber, and finally the sales are spread out over several provinces. So you'd have to be standing with a clicker at several chip mills and saw mills across southern China for a couple of years to check the reasonableness of the figures. Mind you, their volumes are still huge and highly questionable, just maybe not quite as shocking as you present it.<br /><br />Bottom line. In light of what the company is being accused, it would be nice if those of us seriously trying to analyze the situation could avoid unnecessary hyperbole. The truth is going to be bad enough.Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09171960862975615346noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-15114295308928219802011-06-25T11:48:34.037+10:002011-06-25T11:48:34.037+10:00Hi, always enjoy your blog. I always learn somethi...Hi, always enjoy your blog. I always learn something :) <br />You should check this out on Sino<br />http://www.metalaugmentor.com/eforum/?p=6994<br />It is a well done neutralish case for the stock I expect you would enjoy.salishseanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-9440692964490025692011-06-25T06:22:20.948+10:002011-06-25T06:22:20.948+10:00I don't remember all the details, but last dec...I don't remember all the details, but last decade China consolidated its ministries, going from dozens to about ten mega-ministries today. I'm pretty sure there has not been a Ministry of Forestry for some time. Wikipedia says it was renamed in 1998, so its odd that SFE would refer to it in a press release in 2000.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49203603877644889382011-06-25T02:29:20.914+10:002011-06-25T02:29:20.914+10:00hi John,
how long do you think it is going to tak...hi John,<br /><br />how long do you think it is going to take before we have any clarity?Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15280566363678151025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-57068688737880094882011-06-25T01:57:06.966+10:002011-06-25T01:57:06.966+10:00Oh and what accreditations did Joseph in the Bible...Oh and what accreditations did Joseph in the Bible possess? Slave? Prisoner? <br /><br />You fools of randomness.sinoforestanalystnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-70680834512448371852011-06-25T01:55:16.534+10:002011-06-25T01:55:16.534+10:00How many billionaire investors are 'accredited...How many billionaire investors are 'accredited' analysts or 'accountants?' How many famous short sellers and fraud detectors are 'accredited' analysts or 'accountants'? David Einhorn? Bill Ackman? Jim Chanos? Rocker Partners? Asensio? Soros? Paulson? Burry? <br /><br />You suckers. The 'accredited' people are empty suits who are good at sounding smart (some are). <br /><br />The above take money from you fools of randomness who hide behind empty designations.sinoforestanalystnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-51586916511075288592011-06-25T00:51:05.216+10:002011-06-25T00:51:05.216+10:00Just because someone is a shortseller and will gai...Just because someone is a shortseller and will gain from the drop in stock price doesn't neccessarily mean that he is wrong. It would be interesting to know for those who are voicing their opinions whether they are long, short or don't own the stock because it would put your position in context. If you are claiming the company is legit but you don't go long, then you are simply a commentator. I myself don't own the stock because being in the U.S., I don't have the capability of checking the truth of either the company's or Muddy Water's position. If I want to gamble on a hunch, I go to Las Vegas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-65861694025565704472011-06-25T00:34:53.498+10:002011-06-25T00:34:53.498+10:00The same guy who said your comments are becoming a...The same guy who said your comments are becoming a 'joke' tweeted the following (I saved a screenshot of his tweets in case he deletes them):<br /><br />"Paulson did not sell $SNOFF. If he sold why would he have personally hired PWC to investigate?"sinoforestanalystnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-31585649717483974492011-06-25T00:16:07.826+10:002011-06-25T00:16:07.826+10:00How is it that a person with no analyst or account...How is it that a person with no analyst or accounting certification can issue a report on the processes of a business. He was wrong in the case of Orient Paper and Carson Block is wrong here as well.<br /><br />He clearly does not understand the business model and because of this he believes it is suspect.<br /><br />The very fact that he stands to gain by any depreciation in stock value should be enough for intelligent minds to figure out what's really going on hereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-3031956874238641452011-06-25T00:14:28.357+10:002011-06-25T00:14:28.357+10:00So, if you can't acertain whether the company ...So, if you can't acertain whether the company is a fraud or not at this point, should you be buying the stock. It would be speculation, not investing. Anyone that believes SinoForest is telling the truth and is a legit company doesn't have to say anything to try to convince others. They just need to put their money where their mouth is and buy the stock. The stock is down 90% and if they are right, it's a screaming buy. Talk is cheap.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-15759281369169190522011-06-25T00:13:23.213+10:002011-06-25T00:13:23.213+10:00Does McDonalds reveal who it gets its beef from? N...Does McDonalds reveal who it gets its beef from? NO.<br /><br />Does coke tell us the "secret" formula used to make its product? NO.<br /><br />Sino is not doing anything different...yet they are being crucified for adhering to strong and profitable business practices.<br /><br />I get the impression from the bias of your article that you are shorting the stock too.Edward Goodienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-14537532830448284342011-06-25T00:10:32.337+10:002011-06-25T00:10:32.337+10:00One theory for all the secrecy around intermediari...One theory for all the secrecy around intermediaries is that perhaps there is significant CCP/Govt involvement. This could be legitimate or not, but I can think of many scenarios that might make such involvement sensitive, and hence, secretive. The People's Army, for example, is heavily involved in a wide variety of business dealings. If this is the case it could still be extremely hard to know if it is bullish (i.e. the dealings are legit, not illegal, etc) or bearish (laws have been broken, improper deals have been cut, etc.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-57951624357553710882011-06-25T00:08:39.505+10:002011-06-25T00:08:39.505+10:00Dear mr 'anonymous'
i think (and I belie...Dear mr 'anonymous' <br /><br />i think (and I believe the market thinks) you are the joke.<br /><br />Ernst and Young is standing behind their audit? Source please? Lack of comment during this does not imply they're standing by anything.<br /><br />PWC has agreed to conduct a special investigation because it's free money for them.<br /><br />I think I know who you are (twitter handle 'ValuePlaysX' as you've been spreading misinformation and outright lies. Please stop.sinoforestanalystnoreply@blogger.com