tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post8015038278432515875..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Changing my mind on MicrosoftJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger121125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49075770047313355322019-10-22T21:04:46.809+11:002019-10-22T21:04:46.809+11:00Such an informative post. Thank you for sharing
&l...<br />Such an informative post. Thank you for sharing<br /><a href="http://www.glms.com.au/project-online-and-office-365/>Office 365</a><br />GLMShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05624561837552260057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-1265795626012504512013-11-11T18:51:53.806+11:002013-11-11T18:51:53.806+11:00You would have to add about a 2% yield to the S&am...You would have to add about a 2% yield to the S&P 500 return to make it comparable to the dividend adjusted MSFT return. Still the point was valid on the day I posted that comment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-67516842947052899622013-11-08T03:00:50.021+11:002013-11-08T03:00:50.021+11:00As of mid-morning today, MSFT is up 34.3% (on a di...As of mid-morning today, MSFT is up 34.3% (on a dividend adjusted basis) from the time our blogger sold and shorted. The S&P 500 is up 29.8% in the same period.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-13700890791544578582013-01-20T12:56:31.798+11:002013-01-20T12:56:31.798+11:00I'm a programmer, used to do C#, now PHP.
Mos...I'm a programmer, used to do C#, now PHP.<br /><br />Most commercial PCs I see these days are still winXP. The local hospital, the garage, most shop tills are XP touch. I have no idea how the new windows will fit into these peoples lives.Leuchtenhttp://www.lampenled.eunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49395673674851553472013-01-20T12:20:20.502+11:002013-01-20T12:20:20.502+11:00Shorting stock of a corporation that grew earnings...Shorting stock of a corporation that grew earnings by 250% the last "lost" decade and sports a P/E of 10 (excluding the recent write down) doesn't seem like the wisest decision to me. jes?Svenjahttp://www.lampenled.eunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-70569249900127713222013-01-19T09:31:21.553+11:002013-01-19T09:31:21.553+11:00It is all about Azure and enterprises, consumers a...It is all about Azure and enterprises, consumers are a lost battle for them. Though, Azure doesn't seem to gain traction so far either.Leuchtenhttp://www.lampenled.eunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-59070537313798812292013-01-01T05:50:08.627+11:002013-01-01T05:50:08.627+11:00I hate and love .NET and Windows 8 for the same re...I hate and love .NET and Windows 8 for the same reason. They both have wonderful positives but completely LACK benefits previously accomplished. Why do they have to kill wonderful "Past" accomplishments when adding new benefits?????? ".NET" great for development poor for performance & simplicity. Windows 8 great for home users - horrid for developers/business users. Fact remains, although support & options hardware/software wise is being diminished from XP (which is really what's pissing off the XP community.) no-one can logically argue that doing simple things like open program/close program was just simpler in XP - and simpler goes in hand with easier and exactly why craigslist.org is not a terrible failure like msn.com<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-68325429873834339702012-11-14T08:00:51.473+11:002012-11-14T08:00:51.473+11:00Hey, I would split MS into two separate companies....Hey, I would split MS into two separate companies. Move the people and org from the consumer products side out. Give them a bunch of cash. Let them go, let them be young. Then OldSoft can concentrate on the business products and services - go after it, make it better. Take Oracle, SAP, whomever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-13379596782502017142012-10-29T14:52:16.822+11:002012-10-29T14:52:16.822+11:00Wow, wow, wow! Absolutely BRILLIANT review of Wind...Wow, wow, wow! Absolutely BRILLIANT review of Windows 8. John, write more on it!<br /><br />My two-cents:<br /><br />First, I'm a web-app programmer & web developer turned executive. I currently use Windows 8 for productivity, graphic design, etc - but ONLY in Windows 7 mode. I never use the apps.<br /><br />Second, TOUCH SCREEN is very different than TOUCH PAD. You have to reach UP and hold your arm in the air to use a laptop touch screen. That hurts for 8 hours a day. Therefore, I will continue using my mouse.<br /><br />As for touch pads, I had one of the very first ones made, back in the mid 90's. They're wonderful, but not for programming or graphic design. They also require a lot of getting used to.<br /><br />I guess that if Windows dumps the desktop I'll be switching to a Mac. I don't like their UI very much, but I just don't see how I can use Adobe products in Metro.<br /><br />I did just purchase Win 8 on Newegg: it works fine in "Windows 7" mode. It's going to be Windows 9 that really kills them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-31724617553995147692012-10-01T18:09:49.355+10:002012-10-01T18:09:49.355+10:00"I am now short about 30bps."
So presum..."I am now short about 30bps."<br /><br />So presumably you are just short a broad basket (S&P or similar), which is implicitly short MSFT?Mikehttp://www.spiegelschrank-bad.eunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-55773823196117470432012-08-29T23:11:35.196+10:002012-08-29T23:11:35.196+10:00If you think teaching an old dog new tricks is cha...If you think teaching an old dog new tricks is challenging, you should try to teach a young dog old tricks... <br /><br />:-)Garretthttp://www.thehrisworld.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-82386277805321648312012-08-14T16:53:31.719+10:002012-08-14T16:53:31.719+10:00Nice article. I'll only make one point:
"...Nice article. I'll only make one point:<br /><br />"Prediction 2: this will accelerate, rather than slow down, the rate at which enterprises take their enterprise specific software into platform independent programs"<br /><br />I think you're 3-4 years behind, it's now moving in the other direction. The rise of the app store via iOS and Android is leading to more platform fragmentation rather than less. Although the web can provide a decent software environment (at least for geeks), apps are far more popular on smartphones. The rush for HTML5 and the problems caused by this, such browser incompatabilities (IE anyone!) and the two main bodies involved have just parted ways, is only going to increase this fragmentation.<br /><br />The hilarious irony of all this is that the best tools I've seen for supporting multiple native smartphone platforms are based on Microsoft's .NET! (http://xamarin.com/)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-73616574265672231282012-08-12T17:09:27.159+10:002012-08-12T17:09:27.159+10:001- I think cloud computing is overhyped to some de...1- I think cloud computing is overhyped to some degree. Firstly, cloud computing has been around for a long time.<br /><br />Secondly, there are just some programs that don't work too well in a cloud format. Google Docs is not as good as Microsoft Office, and Adobe's online version of Photoshop is awful.<br /><br />2- Programs that push the limits of what a PC can do (e.g. video editing, games) will likely stay on the desktop and give Microsoft an edge. The companies that make video editing software are always trying to kill their Mac version. Sometimes it is because Apple decides to screw over its partners by not making high-end Mac hardware (which is awful for companies that make very high end editing systems). Secondly, Apple doesn't put as many resources towards supporting developers. If you wrote a Mac program in 1999, it cannot run on a Mac computer today. And it can't easily be ported to Mac either.<br /><br />3- To add on about the difficulties of developing software for Mac, Adobe made a 64-bit version of Photoshop for the PC first. Only in the next version of Photoshop did they make the Mac version 64-bit. This is because Photoshop used Carbon for its user interface and there is no 64-bit support for Carbon; Adobe had to rewrite its entire user interface (!).<br /><br />Apple is focusing its resources and development efforts on tablet/cell phones. Its development tool (Xcode) only supports one programming language (Objective C). Whereas Microsoft supports multiple programming languages.<br /><br />4- I don't think that people will ditch tablets for a notebook/desktop. There's something to be said for a wider range of software and a larger screen. I'm not sure I can picture somebody owning only a tablet and a smartphone.<br /><br />Though we may be at the point where many people don't need to upgrade their computers. (Then again something new always comes along.)GlennChttp://glennchan.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-36454733640366916042012-08-07T07:25:58.205+10:002012-08-07T07:25:58.205+10:00How quickly can they bring Windows 9 out?How quickly can they bring Windows 9 out?Hanknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-35758222468119906892012-08-04T10:15:48.849+10:002012-08-04T10:15:48.849+10:00You are very biased and have no clue what you'...You are very biased and have no clue what you're talking about. For example: "Nowadays nobody under thirty writes anything on Microsoft developer tools unless they are demented or brain-dead."<br /><br />SpaceX (ever heard of them?) has an average age of 32 and they code all their software in C#..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-92121943686081706892012-08-03T06:15:12.940+10:002012-08-03T06:15:12.940+10:00While microsoft is certainly facing a lot of issue...While microsoft is certainly facing a lot of issues, it has its lead in the enterprise to fall back on. Office and legacy software are a big reason why, but I think sharepoint has a good deal of potential. Having looked into it for a previous company, it may be the top collaboration program out there and integrates pretty well with their other software. If I were microsoft, I'd spend much more time teaching businesses about how to use it. <br /><br />On the downside, Apple now has a hardware lead, a usability lead, and a money lead, and I just don't see any vendor matching the iPad's hardware at its price point. And I don't see anything Microsoft has in the pipeline is going to be gamechanger. You can already put a keyboard on an iPad, and Apple is already pretty good at integrating between devices. <br /><br />But I think microsoft has a huge culture problem: it focuses on usability and providing options, apple emphasizes design. If you walk into an apple store after any other electronics store, you will have a pretty good idea why apple is doing so well, and what microsoft needs to work on. And microsoft's seattle bubble certainly doesn't help--I recently visited some friends in Seattle who seemed far more enthusiastic about microsoft's pipeline than was actually merited.Eric Titusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-22643278383102663092012-08-03T02:50:35.042+10:002012-08-03T02:50:35.042+10:00Martin Gercsak said...
And what's their divid...Martin Gercsak said...<br /><br /><i>And what's their dividend yield? Hardly 2%. They should have given all this wasted money to shareholders. Then they would probably have a 10% dividend. If you are a shareholder there you are just financing Balmer's idiosyncrasies.</i><br /><br />Looking at Microsoft's dividend yield is highly misleading. They buy back shares agressively, so they return most of their earnings back to shareholders. Share Buybacks are even better for a long-term holder because of tax benefits.Stefanhttp://simple-value-investing.de/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-9178907125266999232012-08-02T21:09:36.887+10:002012-08-02T21:09:36.887+10:00Here is a link to an article which might be of int...Here is a link to an article which might be of interest: <br /><br />http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com.au/2012/05/fear-and-loathing-and-windows-8.html<br /><br />The author, Mike Mace, is a tech guy (ex Apple, Palm, etc) who tries to analyse what it all means from a business stategy perspective. I expect he can predict the future as well as anybody (ie, not at all) but his views are always interesting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-17825135749853836362012-08-02T16:33:56.465+10:002012-08-02T16:33:56.465+10:00This is a $25,000 camera and still doesn't hav...This is a $25,000 camera and still doesn't have USB 3. http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/676192-REG/Panasonic_AJ_HPX2000_AJ_HPX2000_2_3_3CCD_P2.html<br /><br />It's pretty obvious the market doesn't think usb 3 is particularly important and it is just investing in over capacity.Martin Gercsakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05032543785284627558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-3922141910903473952012-08-02T16:26:04.504+10:002012-08-02T16:26:04.504+10:00Regarding Apple and no USB3 support on the Mac Pro...Regarding Apple and no USB3 support on the Mac Pro:<br />1. If you are a professional you would use Firewire. <br />2. I guess they did a survey among their users and figured there was not much demand for USB 3 (perhaps because everyone was using Firewire). So instead of wasting millions on a feature that was not required they decided to invest it in more productive areas.<br /><br />Just for reference, I have a 6 years old HDTV tuner that transfers HDTV just fine on USB 2.Martin Gercsakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05032543785284627558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-69925006539869256902012-08-02T15:42:21.938+10:002012-08-02T15:42:21.938+10:00Unfortunately I have to disagree.
While you may m...Unfortunately I have to disagree.<br /><br />While you may make a good point, the devil is always in the details. What you are referring to is the general development of software platforms using Microsoft tools.<br /><br />Have a look at their Server & Tools category. Their cloud service (Azure) has had a lot of very very positive writeups including being superior to Amazon's service. SQL server continues to increase market share. This is outpacing software revenues of say Oracle. The proof is in the pudding. Visual Studio is also within this business revenue category. All these tools are all used by the developers you refer to!<br /><br />Windows market share erosion is relatively negligible. Business division continues to tick along.<br /><br />The online services / gaming divisions are just hanging around not really contributing much profit/loss.<br /><br />At the moment, there is no evidence that MSFT is having issues.<br /><br />Your argument could be that - qualitatively, you are detecting trends which may flow down to the entire business say 5 years down the line. My point is that if you look at their Server & Tools division, it answers your concerns - it is still solidly chugging along.<br /><br />Don't forget that also, the company is obviously not expensively valued. It is actually a diversified software business (ie will provide industry growth + alpha, if any) and not a 3 product business (eg AAPL). It has heaps of optionality (eg on Android via licensing fees, mobile platform penetration which is basically only upside for MSFT, online services and games).<br /><br />I used to be a developer myself in my younger days (and still do some, but terrible at it now). I can tell you the new generation of Microsoft development tools continue to be good, if not the best. Definitely within any one's mandate to consider its services and software. <br /><br />This is a company people love to hate, but I also recognise that an amazingly large amount of exceptional individuals are recruited by Microsoft and continue to do so. Some of the smartest people I knew at university work at Microsoft and have done so for years. Yes, it screwed up around Vista but every company screws up. What else did it screw up? Sure maybe it missed the boat on smart phones and tablets, but this is not screwing up - it is still executing its core franchies strongly. When people wave their arms and generically say Microsoft has a lot of cultural issues and that MSFT always stuffs things up - I fail to see proper evidence of this.<br /><br />I don't think this stock can double any time soon, but it can safely deliver outperformance.<br /><br />I'm long and believe it's a decent for the medium and possibly long term.The PMhttp://bearmarketblues.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-50961154887739373872012-08-02T10:35:03.612+10:002012-08-02T10:35:03.612+10:00It's beyond me why anyone would own Microsoft ...It's beyond me why anyone would own Microsoft shares. Forget about growth prospects and look at the capital allocation. They wasted billions and billions on upgrades that didn't change much since WinXP. Not to mention Bing, MSN, Zune (remember that?) A hopeless company that is just running after it's competitors. And what's their dividend yield? Hardly 2%. They should have given all this wasted money to shareholders. Then they would probably have a 10% dividend. If you are a shareholder there you are just financing Balmer's idiosyncrasies.Martin Gercsakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05032543785284627558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-38018693059506543112012-07-31T05:38:07.762+10:002012-07-31T05:38:07.762+10:00I'm one of those dinosaurs you mention, I'...I'm one of those dinosaurs you mention, I'm 39 and I write in C. I'm a hardcore software engineer. I work on ultra-high performance code and exotic data structures.<br /><br />I use Windows at home and so use the MS development tools. Problem for me is MS froze C support. There have been two revisions of the standard since 1991 and MS hasn't implemented support. I'm now thinking I need to move to Linux to keep using my language.<br /><br />C on Windows is a niche, though; compiled-language developers use C++, which MS supports.<br /><br />I concur these days much development occurs in Java/Python/other languages which do not use MS development tools.<br /><br />I've seen and read a bit about Windows 8. I'm not going to buy it or use it, as it is. The user interface is impossible, inconceivable. I would have to move to Linux, rather than use Windows 8 (but for now, of course, I just keep using Windows 7).<br /><br />(In fact, relating to this, I used Windows 2000 until I upgraded to Windows 7).<br /><br />Most end users still use Windows, on their PC/laptop. Most end users now use Apple/Android on their phones. More and more apps are now web-based, which does not require Windows.<br /><br />I see MS as a natural monopoly which is dissolving due to technological change, which they (in theory) could have mastered and implemented themselves, but did not.<br /><br />(Blank Xavier)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-38336883652116730812012-07-30T18:28:55.661+10:002012-07-30T18:28:55.661+10:00Microsoft has really helped the world become what ...Microsoft has really helped the world become what it is today. The technology of today just proves that more and more developments could also come in the future.christinehttp://www.coghlincompanies.com/cogmedix.phpnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-10732927265668621292012-07-30T05:26:10.105+10:002012-07-30T05:26:10.105+10:00Thanks for that article and also thanks to the man...Thanks for that article and also thanks to the many commenters, who added certainly much value to that article.<br /><br />There is one small thing I want to add:<br /><br />I am working at a small company specialized in simulation software. Our software is available for windows only. And it will never be available as a cloud-based service you can access with your browser. That will not be possible, mainly due to performance reasons. And I doubt, that it will ever be available for another operating system within the next decades.<br /><br />And I don't think we are the only example, were this is the case. Especially in the business world, there is no alternative to windows and I am sure this will remain true for a long time.<br /><br />The PC is not dead and will never be. And the same with windows. It is true, that growth is slowing down and PCs are replaced by Pads in some areas. And nobody can be sure, if Microsoft will ever play an important role there. But that does not mean, Microsoft is dead.<br /><br />I am convinced, that Microsoft stock is cheap, and it is one of my largest investments. It is true, that past growth rates are very likely not achievable in the future for microsoft. But even with zero growth, the current share price is not expensive at all.Stefanhttp://simple-value-investing.com/noreply@blogger.com