tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post3646632013711702110..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Going one up on Jeff Matthews with Chaoda Modern AgricultureJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-20497117271940852082012-02-01T17:56:11.811+11:002012-02-01T17:56:11.811+11:00What if you short a stock and that stock is suspen...What if you short a stock and that stock is suspended from trading indefinitely cos of going into liquidation? Does that mean you win 100%?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-7478643076006296552011-10-14T00:17:24.591+11:002011-10-14T00:17:24.591+11:00I see. Thanks guys :)I see. Thanks guys :)Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-80374010689502222492011-10-13T03:36:57.356+11:002011-10-13T03:36:57.356+11:00you just gave this poor guy the perfect wedding gi...you just gave this poor guy the perfect wedding gift (in Nov '11 I heard...)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-38279268658355634702011-10-13T00:59:43.940+11:002011-10-13T00:59:43.940+11:00@Tom:
short version:
BIG. and you wouldn't wan...@Tom:<br />short version:<br />BIG. and you wouldn't want to do it anyways.<br />long version:<br />You'd have to have a friend at a bank or $100m+ AUM to get ISDA with someone who would even look at this (liquidity in something like this is limiting to 0).<br />You'd get so raped that you might lose money even if they defaulted (on a credit like this, you'd pay a huge sum up-front + high running costs, not to mention that it would be marked against you at every opportunity. Not to mention that with relatively low issuance of the debt, they could happily game the whole thing (say, let you write expensive CDS on 100% issuance, physically settled only, then cheaply buy all the debt thus making it impossible for you to deliver and your contract worthless. Happened before).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-77534030014329625452011-10-12T22:50:57.448+11:002011-10-12T22:50:57.448+11:00Tom, dealers haven't written Chaoda CDS since ...Tom, dealers haven't written Chaoda CDS since 2007 which should tell you something. Ditto Sino-Forest. Seems the credit analysts in Asia are a bit more smart.... or perhaps have less upside and are therefore a lot more skeptical. Hard to say.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-56660171874635832432011-10-12T13:52:56.818+11:002011-10-12T13:52:56.818+11:00Forgive the amateur question, but... could you buy...Forgive the amateur question, but... could you buy something like a CDS on all these Chinese frauds as a cheaper alternative to shorting? I imagine there is little to no market, but if someone would sell you a deep OTM put, maybe they would sell you a default swap? ...I know nothing about how big you have to be to actually enter into a CDS contract.Tomnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-30234398791247186552011-10-12T12:49:47.497+11:002011-10-12T12:49:47.497+11:00I can't understand at this point what sellside...I can't understand at this point what sellside analyst would cover any of these kinds of companies. It's career suicide.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-53539209191260784682011-10-12T02:21:29.239+11:002011-10-12T02:21:29.239+11:00He is... john_hempton I think.He is... john_hempton I think.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-88657212376395574902011-10-12T01:58:03.615+11:002011-10-12T01:58:03.615+11:00John,
You're right.
Cheers,
JeffJohn,<br />You're right.<br />Cheers,<br />JeffJeff Matthewshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12035583547015427342noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-7782642269601615702011-10-12T01:41:53.234+11:002011-10-12T01:41:53.234+11:00When is John getting on twitter?When is John getting on twitter?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com