tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post1070072210631725124..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: French intelligence on LibyaJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-84721362095205948542011-09-16T04:32:10.111+10:002011-09-16T04:32:10.111+10:00Looks like you were right.
http://www.theworld.org...Looks like you were right.<br />http://www.theworld.org/2011/09/france-envisions-strong-role-in-libya/caquehttp://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-42667544306289468802011-03-18T23:08:33.744+11:002011-03-18T23:08:33.744+11:00I am truly impressed that your call is vindicated ...I am truly impressed that your call is vindicated - didn't think there was any chance of the NFZ 'flying', with Merkel and Ashton (EU foreign minister) against, and a likely Russian or Chinese veto.Labanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12031578024191117985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-15892472296420759112011-03-13T18:35:37.468+11:002011-03-13T18:35:37.468+11:00John,
I think it more likely that French interest...John,<br /><br />I think it more likely that French interest lies in trying to destroy some/all of the evidence of the depth of their links to Gadaffi.<br /><br />I suspect the British Govt has something it would rather remain secret.<br /><br />In some ways it reminds me of the line (jokingly) attributed to Rumsfeld when asked how he knew Saddam had WMD's - I know because I sold them to him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-47977086053638057002011-03-13T04:22:08.806+11:002011-03-13T04:22:08.806+11:00I read your post as saying France has better intel...I read your post as saying France has better intel in Libya. But another view of France's actions is that they have different interests. There have been reports of pilfering (imagine that!) by Gaddafi from Total's work. And the pilfered money might have been invested with/by Anglo or American firms, hence the different takes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-20673940394439776442011-03-13T02:09:34.851+11:002011-03-13T02:09:34.851+11:00I wonder if the China National Oil Corporation are...I wonder if the China National Oil Corporation are on the phone to Tripoli?Labanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12031578024191117985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-31415466984725873832011-03-12T15:03:37.439+11:002011-03-12T15:03:37.439+11:00Hi John,
Having seen so many US forays into foreig...Hi John,<br />Having seen so many US forays into foreign disputes I only hope we see Europe pull it's collected finger out this time and do it's own dirty work for a change instead of relying once more on the US. I note the french NEVER help out but are happy to sit on the sidelines whilst they profit from the sale of weapons and weapons systems to both sides.<br />France are certainly very happy with their position with Total in Yemen whilst the US protects them via intelligence for cash to keep Yemen onside.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05801818425431430255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-6716059778242297542011-03-12T06:58:21.136+11:002011-03-12T06:58:21.136+11:00It's funny. I was about to write a post pointi...It's funny. I was about to write a post pointing out that Brit PM Cameron was getting the worst of both worlds - annoying Gaddafi (and we saw from the Swiss affair that he will up the stakes when annoyed) - while not doing him any material damage. After the Blair administration and BP spent so much time getting him onside, too. The SAS were in Libya, training the Libyan Army, only last year. <br /><br />"Men avenge slight injuries, but not grave ones".<br /><br />I was assuming that BPs investment was more or less a write off. <br /><br />Now you're making me think again. Could it be that Cameron and Sarkozy have a cunning plan ? It would run contrary to Cameron's current performance, but I suppose it's just theoretically possible.Labanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12031578024191117985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-87086677889940326022011-03-12T03:02:38.894+11:002011-03-12T03:02:38.894+11:00I think you might be a little off on Sarkozy's...I think you might be a little off on Sarkozy's nationalism. He is probably one of the least nationalist French presidents since WWII, having fully reintegrated NATO, taking vacations in the US, etc. They even call him "Sarko l'Américain" in France.<br />But Total is a different matter, it's been at the center of French politics for a very long time.Guillaumehttp://datamgmt.tumblr.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-62050548609171437542011-03-12T02:47:42.252+11:002011-03-12T02:47:42.252+11:00Are the oil fields mostly in rebel controlled regi...Are the oil fields mostly in rebel controlled regions? If so, I'd think that explains everything.<br /><br />The news is coming out that the rebels are poorly organized, poorly trained and lacked heavy weaponry. On reflection, there really was no reason to expect otherwise (was there?).<br /><br />The rebels had a good start. However, Gaddafi will win unless the rebels receive overt support from the west. I suspect Gaddafi will regain control within a month.<br /><br />Libya is 4x the size of California. However there is only ~6 million people which is about the population of the region around San Francisco bay area. There just isn't enough people in a large open area (desert) to have a long drawn out civil war against a well equip army. <br /><br />The French jump the gun siding with the rebel because of their initial success and because of Total.<br /><br />There is a silver lining to all this for the rest of the world. Countries in the middle east are spending huge sums to plicate their populace with government largess. There will be a big drive to replenish that sum and balance the government budget by selling oil. Not to mention to take advantage of oil's recent highs. This includes Libya.狂猪https://www.blogger.com/profile/16599529315620633684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-19874771403525167472011-03-12T00:45:40.068+11:002011-03-12T00:45:40.068+11:00John, can you expand on this? Do they think the r...John, can you expand on this? Do they think the rebles will ultimately win, but that the Q wioll hit the oil fields first if this is allowed to continue? Are there investment implications?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-14235346415312626672011-03-12T00:21:58.186+11:002011-03-12T00:21:58.186+11:00France definitely has significant interests in Afr...France definitely has significant interests in Africa and the French media have been way out in front on coverage of the recent events, particularly AFP and France24 (indeed much of the coverage I have seen seems to come from AFP).<br /><br />Quite surprising to see Sarkozy taking this much interest this early on - very risky for him with an election on the horizon and the obvious reluctance of the French to become in significant foreign entanglements (minor entanglements in sub-saharan Africa are ok).<br /><br />This definitely bears watching...Alaric Investmentshttp://alaricinvestments.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-63388946181825244462011-03-11T19:23:54.632+11:002011-03-11T19:23:54.632+11:00I don't think that Total is incompetent. And ...I don't think that Total is incompetent. And I suspect Total were in his ear.<br /><br />Moreover the Brits are now backing him.<br /><br />All very strange...John Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-17301532319771593432011-03-11T19:19:40.262+11:002011-03-11T19:19:40.262+11:00Incompetence? Madame Merkel started messing with h...Incompetence? Madame Merkel started messing with him again. Don't think the rebels have the equipment to make it for another two weeks, but who knows what kind of support they will receive?<br /><br />Maybe Sarkozy noticed that Libya's investments in France are larger than the reverse. How could he possibly lose?IFnoreply@blogger.com