tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post820395356099464246..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: A small hedge fund manager’s lamentJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-80244841485431981002011-02-26T09:01:07.168+11:002011-02-26T09:01:07.168+11:00I am curious whether you have looked into Benford&...I am curious whether you have looked into Benford's law and its applications in accounting forensics as a means of identifying fraud in companies you review.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-1547769824711151172011-02-26T07:45:55.733+11:002011-02-26T07:45:55.733+11:00John,
After all of these fraud allegations over th...John,<br />After all of these fraud allegations over the last few months, how many do you think will fail an audit and/or get delisted in the coming weeks?<br /><br />W/ the SEC investigation, it seems like this is finally going to be the breaking point when those "emperors with no clothes" companies get nailed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-4670937951296507082011-02-26T03:45:54.664+11:002011-02-26T03:45:54.664+11:00"The low yields that PE funds can issue debt ..."The low yields that PE funds can issue debt have now resulted in low ex-ante returns for small cap investors." The same must be true for large-cap investors. Small cap and large cap are not two different worlds--short term rates are low for both. If rates are low, so is the expected return necessary to make a proposed business venture worth pursuing. Investors must accept relatively low expected returns on their equity investments when debt investments offer even lower returns. This is what the low-interest world looks like. <br /><br />In short, you don't succeed in making plausible your claim that large caps are relatively cheap. (Given the greater number and greater obscurity of small caps, there will always be more small cap frauds than large-cap frauds. By the way, your work in ferreting them out is obviously socially very useful; and your posts on the frauds are quite interesting.)<br /><br />"[I]t is a day to day struggle." C'est la vie!Philohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02814125172453918700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-67077742928455410232011-02-26T01:33:54.611+11:002011-02-26T01:33:54.611+11:00It is always tough investing at a top, even an int...It is always tough investing at a top, even an interim top. <br /><br />The question for you down there is how long it will be until the AUD breaks down; something must adjust to the serious purchasing power parity discrepancy down in OZ......<br /><br />I cannot comprehend how ordinary people in OZ are coping with the high prices, particularly for property, but also for food and energy...Alaric Investmentshttp://alaricinvestments.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-1907465712064275152011-02-25T18:47:52.172+11:002011-02-25T18:47:52.172+11:00John,
indeed that may be half of it. The other hal...John,<br />indeed that may be half of it. The other half is the drag on large caps of cap-weighted ETF and market indices as the hedge of choice. This eliminates tail risk (on the short side) and allows guys (and they are guys) to get maximum bang for buck in using their weight of money to directly impact performance. A double- buggering awaits this trade during the next bout of risk-off deleveraging.Nihoncassandrahttp://nihoncassandra.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-61392450023164270692011-02-25T16:19:02.513+11:002011-02-25T16:19:02.513+11:00Looks like a robust recovery here--and American co...Looks like a robust recovery here--and American companies have plenty of cash to spend on more capital improvements, which should lead to more increases in output per worker.<br /><br />The only potholes I see are these events we have nothing to do with--a Libya, some European debt problems, hurricanes etc. <br /><br />Yes, long-term I would like less debt in the USA, but I think mild inflation will accomplish the same thing.<br /><br />And if you can't find some seriously profitable, good quality companies to own shares of for the next several years, four, five, ten baggers, well what can I say. Short away, mate. Short away.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-8354865077246280482011-02-25T15:56:23.988+11:002011-02-25T15:56:23.988+11:00John, your comparison with Buffett leads people as...John, your comparison with Buffett leads people astray. You neglect to mention the terms WB got on his massive equity injections into various companies in Oct 08 time frame of his famous "buy american" article. This is very sloppy analysis bordering on disinformation.GTThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16165217216883968400noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-8691921557508952002011-02-25T14:49:21.697+11:002011-02-25T14:49:21.697+11:00I share the perception that very little in small c...I share the perception that very little in small cap is cheap, yet I had several PE takeout bids from my portfolio in 2007, and none in 2010-11. The point you're making has been echoed by Grantham, but I still see some "sort-of cheap" small cap merchandise out there, and I expect that some of the PE use it or lose it money may become less discriminating before this round is over.<br /><br />To add to the hopper of concerns, what has been troubling me is that there is such rapid technological change in every industry, that business has become competitive than ever. How does this change impact the risk premium that is supposedly required to invest in equities? <br /><br />An answer might be to find those firms who are creating the disruptive technological change, but whenever I look in depth at an industry it seems that it's more than one firm doing the disrupting. That simple path, at least for me, hasn't provided acceptable investment opportunities.<br /><br />To add complexity to the investment problem, demographics argue for a consistent period of dissaving as the baby-boom generation funds retirement expenses from savings withdrawals. Common sense would seem to require higher rates of return to compensate for the risk, yet the opposite seems to hold in markets for now. <br /><br />And what IS the risk-free rate of return when short term interest rates have their price administered by the Fed, longer term rates are jimmied by QE2 and Chinese and Japanese government buying, and the key Asian- USD exchange rate prices bear no relation to a free market?<br /><br />Quite lamentable!Richhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15333565680808748761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-25088195382309031282011-02-25T14:44:42.625+11:002011-02-25T14:44:42.625+11:00this is a theme I have kept in my mind, with inter...this is a theme I have kept in my mind, with interest rates at zero bound, the world is awash in cheap money and this is causing distortions, it is likely causing a mis-alocation of capital, such as flowing into housing which was obvious but also into all the securitized products which was less publicised.<br /><br />So as an small individual investor, I want to know where are the bloated sectors and what are those specific instruments.<br /><br />THANK YOU for finding one for me, this is very important.<br /><br />frank cannetoFrank Cannetohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17133912293940304827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49005748046840228762011-02-25T14:44:13.832+11:002011-02-25T14:44:13.832+11:00John, for your first correspondent's benefit I...John, for your first correspondent's benefit I would add the Asia Aluminium Group (now called Zaoquing Asia Aluminium), which left investors more than US700 million out of pocket, including some interesting names. Dodgy stuff.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03589959451136227834noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-4540969811151743132011-02-25T14:13:09.148+11:002011-02-25T14:13:09.148+11:00John,
I have enjoyed your posts for years now, and...John,<br />I have enjoyed your posts for years now, and contrary to what you might think, the fraud shorts are great fun. You should seriously consider writing a book about them.Keith Hemstreethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09454526234468345525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-74294749399124924692011-02-25T08:25:03.290+11:002011-02-25T08:25:03.290+11:00Hi John, thanks for that post.
You may have to ...Hi John, thanks for that post. <br /><br />You may have to deal with this for a while. I added a little bit to the small vs large cap view at my global macro blog here:<br />http://globalmacrotrading.wordpress.com<br /><br />Cheers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-19793557278481679402011-02-25T07:51:14.504+11:002011-02-25T07:51:14.504+11:00Hello
As a french (very) small individual investor...Hello<br />As a french (very) small individual investor in small-micro caps, I'm surprised and interested that you do your shopping here.<br />Would you care to mention a few names (just out of curiosity) or your selection criteria ?<br />Anyway I'm starting a (modest) blog on this subject and would appreciate feedback on my own good / bad investing ideas.<br />http://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/Caquehttp://valueinvestingfrance.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-47836283310004176672011-02-25T06:20:53.754+11:002011-02-25T06:20:53.754+11:00John I agree with you on small caps. Two I follow...John I agree with you on small caps. Two I follow that have had silly moves are CRDN (up 67% since July from a somewhat cheap valuation, with no real signs of business turnaround, for a company whose main business, armor, has dried up severely, and whose secondary business, solar, has huge overcapacity concerns) and RAVN (up 60% since July from a reasonable valuation for a well-run supplier of niche industrial/ag goods to silly territory of 23x peak earnings).<br /><br />NotATeabagger: I understand retail investors overlook these stocks, but its hard to believe that cash-rich competitors and PE shops overlook them at the same time. If they're that cheap in this environment they are probably pretty low quality and would blow up in a further recession.<br /><br />I think one way out of the trap is some of the mid-caps that could be buyouts if PE shops start upsizing their deals again or could just get re-rated if management can gain market trust - stuff like WHR, ITT before they announced their split-up (getting close to fair value now), ENR, etc. The larger, more clearly high quality companies in those spaces are pricing in further growth from current historical peak margins/earnings, but some of the midcaps have been left behind because no one wanted to borrow $10b to buy them out and it's easier to get fired for buying ENR than PG.najdorfnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-57040853470121653572011-02-25T05:48:36.930+11:002011-02-25T05:48:36.930+11:00Great post John. I had wondered for a while why t...Great post John. I had wondered for a while why there seemed to be relatively better bargains in large caps than small, and PE explains it. (I don't know if it was, or should've been, obvious to people, but as a hobbyist speculator I didn't put those two and two together.)<br /><br />It also explains why certain China stocks are trading cheap for their growth (I'm thinking of some of the solar shares in particular.) If they can't easily be bought out they aren't going to fetch this sort of PE premium that US small caps will have. (And I suppose there's a fraud premium too.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-83523389512000739722011-02-25T05:16:28.962+11:002011-02-25T05:16:28.962+11:00By number I think the phone being the dominant com...By number I think the phone being the dominant computing device is kinda obvious.<br /><br />3.4 billion handsets in the world - most of which are NOT computing devices. A billion computers.<br /><br />In five years the handsets will have rolled over - and they will all be smart phones.<br /><br />So there will be 3.4 billion computing devices called phones.<br /><br />Whether they are the dominant computing device by computing power used - well that I doubt.<br /><br />But as for ways people use the internet by number rather that in total - no doubt on that.<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-91214763865105065102011-02-25T03:03:23.336+11:002011-02-25T03:03:23.336+11:00Ah, yes. We entered this business assuming we wou...Ah, yes. We entered this business assuming we would focus heavily on small caps, yet our long book is currently dominated by large caps. I spent years consulting to and analyzing telcos and generally think they are poor investments, yet we have owned three big telcos in size for over a year.<br /><br />We are still finding some value in small caps, including one area relevant to your posts: We are net flat China small-caps, but get there by being short a number of them and long others. After digging into that group and following it for three years, we are fairly confident we have identified a few of them that are honest. If we're right, the valuations on the honest ones are ridiculously low.Robert in Chicagonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81805852123602948202011-02-25T01:58:51.040+11:002011-02-25T01:58:51.040+11:00John,
Nice comments, dont read your blog too ofte...John,<br /><br />Nice comments, dont read your blog too often, usually get directed here via Naked Capitalism when Yves finds a good link. I will def check it out more often.<br /><br />Re Sprint...I'd say stay away. I was a hardcore long, dumped it around Q3. If you check out market folly you can find my reason for dumping it. Einhorn is long but i think he gets "BSX-d" on it (BSX was a prior losing long for GL).<br /><br />think the competitive dynamics are just awful now for S. <br /><br />I do think US micro/small caps over some serious value though. Old media stocks in the micro/small have been sold off because of long term business risk but circs have stabilized, cash flow is solid and you have 2012 with olympics and elections. so if u do your homework, fine broadcasters with good NBC coverage and have broadcasting and newspapers in battleground states like VA, OH, FL and then have rationalized their cost basis to the point where you get sick op leverage in 2012, u can get a 2-3 bagger.<br /><br />I am also long an auto supplier that is at <4x ev/ebitda, very modest capex so cheap on p/cf basis. 40% insider ownership, <$100MM market cap, <$50MM EV.<br /><br />Sells to the big 3 which are undergoing a resurgence of sorts. Plus when u are coming off 12MM annualized autos, u dont need to get to 15MM for these guys at this valuation to move up. nice little bump to 12.5MM would be nice.<br /><br />In the US i think some may overlook that small/micro companies didn't benefit from the largesse the big boys did. HOG and HD converted into bank holding cos during the crisis. These small cos really had to make it on their own. This co restructured things in a way that their gross margins now are higher (50%) than they were pre crisis, dumping bad segment, etc and really turning things around.<br /><br />For me anything <1 tang bv or even <1 book value (when intangibles = ip, licensing, tech that can be analyzed to have more than 0 write down val), and/or <5 ev/ebitda (provided low capex) is worth a quick look.<br /><br />I will say I have lost the most on China stocks. just written them off entirely in the small cap area.NotATeabaggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01750039064202384253noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-89968747791533872802011-02-25T00:40:14.445+11:002011-02-25T00:40:14.445+11:00"in a few years the dominant computing device..."in a few years the dominant computing device will be a phone - probably an Android phone" - That's a bold, if not pretty exaggerated forecast, don't ya think? reminds me of the countless number of "the death of the pc" ads that the MFool keeps sending out - year in, year out. And yet, the number of laptops and desktops combined continues to grow...<br />A phone will always simply be too small and uncomfortable for most stuff that is being done on laptops. the same holds for the grossly overhyped iPad - a nice toy and of great use for SOME - but for most it's just another nice-to-have but effectively unnecessary gadget.<br /><br />regarding the subject of your lament, your observations regarding the low borrowing costs for PE shops are absolutely true. But is more than that: the helicopters of the bernanke Fed have effectively made any stock selection based on fundamentals a futile exercise - at least when it comes to outperofrm the overall market. not for ever, of course, as quality stocks will perform superior over time. As long as the fed keeps printing gazillions of fresh $ every day, though, the riskiest, most levered and most cyclical stocks will go up the most.<br />What to do? stick to cheaply priced quality stocks, precious metals and lots of cash. opportunities will come once the house of card comes crashing down - as it ALWAYS does. It will not be different this time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-32273105486052105082011-02-24T21:42:37.976+11:002011-02-24T21:42:37.976+11:00Oh, nothing could go wrong with FMG. Like nothing...Oh, nothing could go wrong with FMG. Like nothing could possibly go wrong with Anaconda.<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81463899021067020552011-02-24T21:24:57.431+11:002011-02-24T21:24:57.431+11:00FMG dec puts were cheap before and are a steal now...FMG dec puts were cheap before and are a steal now after the asic ruling.... one lonely guy in the middle of nowhere, with one product and one customer who's ready to blowup any time, loading on debt. what could go wrong?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-86940742808197242982011-02-24T20:53:02.436+11:002011-02-24T20:53:02.436+11:00Well Mr T - always interested in names...
But y...Well Mr T - always interested in names... <br /><br />But you got to make it look better than say Walmart at 13 times or Target at a similar ratio or plenty below 10 times.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Best value is often loss making companies because nobody does the valuation correctly. I guess Sprint stands out as a possible...<br /><br />---<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-13153962855149179952011-02-24T20:39:41.801+11:002011-02-24T20:39:41.801+11:00Hi John,
I appreciate your general point, but des...Hi John,<br /><br />I appreciate your general point, but despite the relative performance of small caps vs large caps, still find plenty of value in the smaller co's.<br /><br />My starting point is that growth is value. Fund managers are GENERALLY quite lazy, especially in long-only land, and take what brokers say at face value. However, analysts always (i) factor in mean reversion into growth, so fade it very quickly (if they don't do this, DCF's look 'stupid') and (ii) always underestimate margin expansion.<br /><br />So if growth is value, where is the growth? Banks? Pharma? Telco's? Utilities? Those are all large-cap dominated sectors.<br /><br />Of course, I generalise to make a point, but I'm still happy to look for longs in the mid- and small-cap space.thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00988364969048526851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-32185964994213297612011-02-24T20:00:19.667+11:002011-02-24T20:00:19.667+11:00Generating shorts has become a project...
There...Generating shorts has become a project... <br /><br />There are tips that I am not going to share. For instance I know lawyers where every time their name has appeared in the SEC database within 4 years the stock has traded below 10c. <br /><br />Every single time.<br /><br />I guess these lawyers attract loser clients - every client - every one - goes out of business.<br /><br />Do I want to tell you who they are? <br /><br />No. <br /><br />Firstly that is a tool of trade.<br /><br />Secondly - in the time I have written this blog 5 people have threatened to sue me. <br /><br />I have no desire to make it six.<br /><br />JohnJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-28015659018906165702011-02-24T19:21:35.274+11:002011-02-24T19:21:35.274+11:00RE: Diversified fraud shorts.
You have to get sho...RE: Diversified fraud shorts.<br /><br />You have to get short and get loud. See what Kerrisdale did : they put out a report so convincing that even the longs have to say, " Yeah, the emperor has no clothes."<br /><br />Sure made the fraud fold overnight too.<br /><br />Another example is David Einhorn with Lehman Brothers: build a case so tight that the longs have to say, "Yeah, at best, Lehman is fudging the accounts. But more likely that there is acounting fraud going on."<br /><br />Soldier on. And stop pussyfooting--kock out the frauds with one punch already.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com