tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post787153695605781506..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Valeant Pharmaceuticals Part VIII: product sales distribution from the department of "really".John Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-21078788454359214832014-07-26T00:19:10.043+10:002014-07-26T00:19:10.043+10:00If almost all of their products are unpatented, th...If almost all of their products are unpatented, then wouldn't it be entirely sensible that they have no/few blockbuster products as competitors would quickly enter the market for any product that was making outside profits?<br /><br />Especially if their R&D strategy is to just reformulation and variation of existing products -- none of those are going to set the market on fire, but would just get them an incrementally higher market share in a specific segment instead.<br /><br />Is not your expected R&D driven pharmaceutical company but still sounds plausible to me.levinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-59985374624671095062014-07-24T02:45:57.909+10:002014-07-24T02:45:57.909+10:00"And remember these products treat a wide var..."And remember these products treat a wide variety of ailments. Products injected in a dermatologist's office have a different sales profile to say acne cream or psoriasis treatment or the treatment for cold sores or herpes simply because there are different prevalence of these conditions in the real world and a different willingness of people to pay for product."<br /><br />Perhaps the way that pharma pricing works is that it is somehow (negatively) correlated with quantities sold? I.e. a drug that is used and bought rarely (rare brain disease) is more expensive than a drug for cold sores that is sold frequently?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-45618716490575432862014-07-23T07:40:27.460+10:002014-07-23T07:40:27.460+10:00This is interesting. The closest dataset I could ...This is interesting. The closest dataset I could find for comparison, is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_selling_pharmaceutical_products<br /><br />The top ten drugs combined sold 80% more than then next ten. Valeant is claiming a flatter 50% difference for their portfolio. Given that Valeant doesn't do blockbuster drugs and can't afford to buy them, perhaps their distribution is a bit flatter.<br /><br />As much as I dislike Valeant's management, distrust their growth numbers, and believe the debt load will crush them, I'm not sure this is the smoking gun you'd like it to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-40354611754083702992014-07-23T02:02:47.948+10:002014-07-23T02:02:47.948+10:00Presumably the point is that a random selection of...Presumably the point is that a random selection of (say) 100 pharma products is very unlikely to result in the sales profile claimed by Valeant. I have no idea whether it's true or not, but I'd guess that the sales of most pharma company portfolios follow a power law with a few blockbuster products making the majority of sales.<br /><br />Of course, Valeant's portfolio is not entirely random - it results from acquisitions of products already at the point of being marketed, so perhaps that skews the results different to those experienced by companies who do their R&D in house?Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15334261621479728021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-41266437398357001782014-07-22T18:21:32.331+10:002014-07-22T18:21:32.331+10:00I don't understand the point you are tying to ...I don't understand the point you are tying to make. The sales composition is flat and diversified - that's what management says. I want to understand your point, I just don't know what it is. Is it that you are generally sceptical? I know this point, I follow the blog! best regardsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-62990864832571140252014-07-22T12:07:06.543+10:002014-07-22T12:07:06.543+10:00Having a bunch of 4% and 3% products and all the r...Having a bunch of 4% and 3% products and all the rest < 1% would strike me as being pretty diversified. In fact more diversified than almost every other big pharma company out there. <br /><br />In fact, you had a stock portfolio with a similar distribution you would be labelled a closest indexer. What's the point of this post?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-37242223830114148942014-07-22T11:55:59.139+10:002014-07-22T11:55:59.139+10:00John, you're an Australian based and educated ...John, you're an Australian based and educated person, yet you are "colored skeptical". <br /><br />Colour me disappointed. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-33685774484456327512014-07-22T10:42:05.772+10:002014-07-22T10:42:05.772+10:00it's probably right. i mean, can you even nam...it's probably right. i mean, can you even name their top product? solodyne? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-40036600289225139172014-07-22T10:36:41.805+10:002014-07-22T10:36:41.805+10:00Glad to hear of your Croatian trip, John - a terri...Glad to hear of your Croatian trip, John - a terrific place for a summer holiday!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11775242367716287598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-66262276598847049582014-07-22T00:36:32.380+10:002014-07-22T00:36:32.380+10:00What is it that you are suggesting?What is it that you are suggesting?Tsachy Mishalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09704013460309564923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-29634919176546682622014-07-22T00:30:21.899+10:002014-07-22T00:30:21.899+10:00Vilafredo Pareto turns (in disbelief) in his grave...Vilafredo Pareto turns (in disbelief) in his grave.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principleCrocodileChuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10762442097044797842noreply@blogger.com