tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post4647237006954493904..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Practical lessons in assessing exotic risksJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-75237089370889677882013-06-06T11:34:37.050+10:002013-06-06T11:34:37.050+10:00Interesting on Garuda. I recently traveled in Indo...Interesting on Garuda. I recently traveled in Indonesia and apart from a dodgy landing in Medan, all was fine. Apparently, the executives of a listed Australian company are happier traveling Garuda ahead of Qantas to Indonesia. A stunningly positive signal!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-23452075979219787482013-06-05T05:55:24.935+10:002013-06-05T05:55:24.935+10:00I am truly glad my investors money is safe if I di...I am truly glad my investors money is safe if I die.<br /><br />JohnJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-15744614570886220892013-06-04T17:51:48.986+10:002013-06-04T17:51:48.986+10:00From the investors' viewpoint the downsides he...From the investors' viewpoint the downsides here are very different.<br /><br />If you are hit by a 'tail risk' and die of rabies or a plane crash, their money is still safe.<br /><br />If your fund is hit by a 'tail risk' then they lose their money.<br /><br />The rabies risk is genuinely compartmentalised. Now quit worrying and get back to work :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-67526690132610959522013-06-04T13:29:51.508+10:002013-06-04T13:29:51.508+10:00Two entirely different types of risks:
If you get...Two entirely different types of risks:<br /><br />If you get rabies and die, then you have nothing further to worry about and can rest in peace. Death solves all life's problems.<br /><br />If you lose all your money, then you have to live with the shame of failure and the day-to-day irritations of poverty and low social status. That is a horrible fate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-60441790945627659522013-06-03T23:30:13.488+10:002013-06-03T23:30:13.488+10:00The air was fine in Bali - Southern Hemisphere sti...The air was fine in Bali - Southern Hemisphere still - its the stuff in the sweep of China-India air that is irksome.<br /><br />--------<br /><br />For Ken bitten by a monkey at Ubud - I would not have taken that risk. Especially as if you got back to Darwin it would all be covered on Medicare in Australia.<br /><br />But the odds are still long even there - about 700 thousand people visit the monkey temples each year - and maybe 700 get bitten at a very minimum.<br /><br />About half those would take the shots.<br /><br />At least one person has died after a visit to the monkey temples - possibly a few.<br /><br />Upper bound for the risk - one in two hundred. Can't lower bound it.<br /><br />Sorry - not a risk I would take.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Road toll is high - but nothing like that risk.<br /><br />---<br /><br />Still considerable effort has gone into immunizing the animals in Bali's tourist areas and around the monkey temples. Once you get a critical mass of immunized animals you effectively eliminate the disease - like a critical mass of immunized humans and some diseases.<br /><br />If you were bitten by a monkey NOT in the monkey temples - then I would be VERY scared.<br /><br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-28398549904656970782013-06-03T16:44:09.516+10:002013-06-03T16:44:09.516+10:00John,
i used to go to Bali annually; have not been...John,<br />i used to go to Bali annually; have not been for some years and am thinking about going back; but before i go I have to find out: how is the air? all of india and thailand are covered with the asian brown cloud -- visible to the naked eye if you know what to look for; smellable at times, too; certainly ppl prone to asthma can feel it: have you noticed anything?<br />bitten by a horse? sucks. but better than either snake or scorpion. how close did you get to the horse? 50 cm? 1m?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-54656504003203573732013-06-03T15:13:59.331+10:002013-06-03T15:13:59.331+10:00I got bit by a monkey at Ubud and took the punt. I...I got bit by a monkey at Ubud and took the punt. It's a horrible death I read, and once you get the symptoms death is inevitable. <br /><br />Against that, the cost of the treatment is high and the risk is low. I've forgotten the exact numbers but it wasn't that many locals that had been unlucky either. It is just a dramatic way to go and the risk is not nil so all advice will be to take the shots. The death rate on the roads is about 5 times Australia and hugely above rabies. You are probably not very experienced on motorbikes and definitely are unfamiliar with the road conditions, making your risk higher than average. Why take the high risk but protect against the low at great bother and expense?<br /><br />I was surprised when you said "If you get into the habit of taking repeated wipe-out risk in financial markets you will eventually be got" because you inevitably do that. There is no safe haven. The best you can hope for is to minimise those risks. Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81449953824126739532013-06-03T07:59:04.093+10:002013-06-03T07:59:04.093+10:00watch 60 minutes on rabieswatch 60 minutes on rabiesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-8080282473847373922013-06-03T05:57:08.703+10:002013-06-03T05:57:08.703+10:00Got bit by a dog while riding motorbike in Chile. ...Got bit by a dog while riding motorbike in Chile. Traveled on to Equador before understanding the risk. Turned out it was no western vaccines available in Equador, only the old ones you get around your belly button with risk of a lot of side effects.<br /><br />Went back to the US 10 days after the bite, got the modern vaccine, combined with antibodies that would keep me alive (if I was infected) until the vaccine allowed me to create my own.<br /><br />It was all covered by my travel insurance.<br /><br />Guessing you have the same good stuff in Australia.<br /><br />My tip, call your travel insurance, surf on, and take some shots to make shure you stay alive when you get home.<br /><br />PS: What is the probability of a Horse biting you. What is the probability of a Horse biting you if he has rabies..? I'm no horse man..Krisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-44758415816279793472013-06-02T10:19:21.340+10:002013-06-02T10:19:21.340+10:00I accidentally deleted a comment just then - and a...I accidentally deleted a comment just then - and alas Google does not allow me to retrieve it. No idea what it said - to my commentator - sorry.John Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-5340498205102812352013-06-02T02:57:20.155+10:002013-06-02T02:57:20.155+10:00Don't forget the equally miniscule risk of fat...Don't forget the equally miniscule risk of fatal reactions to the treatment.<br /><br />No doubt your excellent doctor took this in to account in telling you to do nothing.<br /><br />In my experience most doctors will tend to recomend the treatment, especially when confronted by an internet induced medical neurotic.<br /><br />Their is financial gain in selling the treament, and it is good for business to flatter the patient, by telling them they did the right thing to come, could have died, and please tell all your friends I saved your life...Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10722955032273795530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-38382133217425055192013-06-01T14:15:34.186+10:002013-06-01T14:15:34.186+10:00Horse nipping is actually quite common, its usuall...Horse nipping is actually quite common, its usually a social/play thing with other horses, but will happily engage a person with a bite unaware that human skin isn't anywhere near as thick. But I can relate, I had a bat land on my shirt in the middle of the day while golfing, and after watching videos online of people with untreated rabies, spent 30 minutes quizing my doctor if hes sure i would have felt a bat bite.<br />So the good news is you don't have rabies and the bad news is that horse does not think of you as an alpha.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-22673173435045217442013-06-01T14:03:32.514+10:002013-06-01T14:03:32.514+10:00Good reply from ddd
Sometimes we WEIRD people atta...Good reply from ddd<br />Sometimes we WEIRD people attach too much importance to the wrong risks. Aren't some daily actions like driving a car more risky? <br />Jared Diamond has an interesting chapter on risk too in his latest book The World until Yesterday (comparisons between traditional societies and ours).gvnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-20640534075676272462013-06-01T11:32:08.084+10:002013-06-01T11:32:08.084+10:00Taleb tells the story of doing risk analysis for a...Taleb tells the story of doing risk analysis for a casino in Las Vegas. The casino worried about people stealing their money; they should have worried about a lazy employee not filing important Nevada state reports leading to a huge fine. They worried about tigers escaping from a cage and attacking the audience; they should have worried about the tigers attacking the trainer.<br /><br />A friend returned home from a trip abroad. Weeks later she developed flu-like symptoms. Eventually she made an appointment with her doctor's office. Since her regular doctor was out she got a new intern. He diagnosed malaria, and told her "You are lucky to get me; I'm the only person in the office that could recognize the symptoms, since I trained in the back woods of Asia."<br /><br />Always a tough choice with rabies shots, hope the doctor's risk assessment is correct.<br />RichAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-14383602016291486722013-06-01T11:26:09.349+10:002013-06-01T11:26:09.349+10:00John - I am in Bali as well reading the post you j...John - I am in Bali as well reading the post you just wrote on Bali. What a random coincidence. Would be great to chat in person if you're free - I'm right on Kuta beachAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-48160145897681152912013-06-01T11:12:02.850+10:002013-06-01T11:12:02.850+10:00JH
You ID'ed your biggest risk in your last p...JH<br /><br />You ID'ed your biggest risk in your last para.<br /><br />I lived/worked in Java in from '97/'98. Garuda crashed 2X, Merpati and another one no longer extant crashed once, and then there was the famous Silk Air 185:<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SilkAir_Flight_185CrocodileChuckhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10762442097044797842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-59883290971066185302013-06-01T10:36:12.234+10:002013-06-01T10:36:12.234+10:00Will you please look at China Stationery Limited (...Will you please look at China Stationery Limited (CSL) on Malaysian stock exchange and tell me it is a fraud?BCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49547203922271452872013-06-01T03:59:05.749+10:002013-06-01T03:59:05.749+10:00Amusingly you're falling prey to one of my fav...Amusingly you're falling prey to one of my favorite risk 'paradoxes', what I like to call the 'scope problem'. Do you lump this risk in with all the other risks that you've sworn off? Or let it pass? If you let it pass, why don't you occasionally let yourself take a financial risk when you feel like it? What justifies any of this categorization?dddhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09696970243460457708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-16614566389510042792013-06-01T01:48:16.998+10:002013-06-01T01:48:16.998+10:00If you start making rabid posts, we'll know wh...If you start making rabid posts, we'll know what happened.comet52https://www.blogger.com/profile/09260734558049028336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-4528756130863448582013-06-01T00:53:26.882+10:002013-06-01T00:53:26.882+10:00Great post! Are you a fan of Nassim Taleb?Great post! Are you a fan of Nassim Taleb?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-35911267523282898252013-05-31T23:14:30.092+10:002013-05-31T23:14:30.092+10:00Dude, please -- I like your writing. Go home and ...Dude, please -- I like your writing. Go home and get shots.<br /><br />The alternative is to figure out the nearest place for the Milwaukee Protocol:<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milwaukee_protocolnycerrollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05569834993782980683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-1903959353468483512013-05-31T23:09:49.659+10:002013-05-31T23:09:49.659+10:00Great postGreat postAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-40762061176946498582013-05-31T22:38:06.879+10:002013-05-31T22:38:06.879+10:00What books did you bring with you?What books did you bring with you?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-54328511532769077312013-05-31T20:50:11.468+10:002013-05-31T20:50:11.468+10:00Love it, great post.
Also what happened to FMCN? ...Love it, great post.<br /><br />Also what happened to FMCN? Care to give us a debrief on what went wrong with your call there?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-40945614437781018032013-05-31T19:07:33.117+10:002013-05-31T19:07:33.117+10:00I might get a second opinion at least! But are 2 e...I might get a second opinion at least! But are 2 experts better than one?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com