tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post3769764356291872450..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Ackman's Herbalife thesis: someone from the government will help poor people and billionaire hedge fund managers...John Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-71667479817018742962018-08-19T10:31:40.790+10:002018-08-19T10:31:40.790+10:00Hello Everybody,
My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live...Hello Everybody,<br />My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.Dr Purva Piushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05883980841903455890noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-74842278881466763882013-07-19T10:37:17.617+10:002013-07-19T10:37:17.617+10:00http://au.businessinsider.com/new-york-times-ad-ba...http://au.businessinsider.com/new-york-times-ad-bashes-ackman-2013-1<br /><br />A man from Cincinnati took out an ad in the New York Times telling hedge fund titan Bill Ackman to “get a life.”<br /><br /><br />https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BBZlGjICMAEPWhU.jpgStephanienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-5796928947340153302013-03-16T04:04:13.740+11:002013-03-16T04:04:13.740+11:00Thanks for sharing this article, its been really i...Thanks for sharing this article, its been really interesting reading about it. I'm doing this research project on <a href="http://www.hqstore.com" rel="nofollow">herbalife Denver co</a> and I am really excited about what I've been learning and to see what else I can learn about it. Thanks for sharing! Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00600134011598076188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-59481108853948177352013-01-27T15:13:15.409+11:002013-01-27T15:13:15.409+11:00I am one of the world authorities on Network Marke...I am one of the world authorities on Network Marketing and I want to help you guys understand this situation. <br /><br />The fact is that I know, the whole Direct Sales industry knows, that Ackman is partially right. He has highlighted something the regulators don't have the balls or brains to attack. <br /><br />Herbalife recruits on the pitch that 'anyone' can succeed in this business.' You can get rich, with rich being a major six-figure income. <br /><br />The truth is that less than 0.1% of Herbalife's people make enough profit to justify the investment of time and money. <br /><br />If Ackman JUST focused on this, Herbalife would not know where to turn and the regulators would hammer them AND the rest of the industry, just as they did with the franchising industry in the 1970s.<br /><br />It would cripple Herbalife's profit and take the shares down last $20. Maybe $10. <br /><br />People would then be shorting Nu-Skin, USANA, Mannatech, etc. <br /><br />There is billions to be made shorting these companies. <br /><br /><br />Ackman's pitch is very credible and he has a $1billion behind it. His problemsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-68259083538273201082013-01-27T08:44:03.070+11:002013-01-27T08:44:03.070+11:00cig said...
@Mike, I am assuming he's not shor... cig said...<br />@Mike, I am assuming he's not shorting with his retail brokerage account in the usual conditions you and I would get, but that he has made a long term deal with someone to get fixed or otherwise predictable costs to cope with the odd short squeeze, and thus not be exposed to short term borrow cost volatility. I mean he's not an idiot who doesn't know about the mechanics of shorting..."<br /><br />Nice try Cig! Your original comment clearly implied a cost free short position. <br />A stock with a multi-billion dollar market cap going up over 150% is not something you think would be covered in a "fixed or otherwise predictable costs" deal?! <br />Idiot indeed...Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-10402411316107033582013-01-11T21:42:34.661+11:002013-01-11T21:42:34.661+11:00Never ever take a hedge fund managers word at face...Never ever take a hedge fund managers word at face value, they will never disclose their true intentions as it is self defeating... if they are talking the stock down i would likely believe they are purchasing and shaking out weak hands and jawboning the market..... nothing in the market is as it seems!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-50295986843700509722013-01-10T19:25:57.125+11:002013-01-10T19:25:57.125+11:00Couldn't agree more. I've said similar thi...Couldn't agree more. I've said similar things about Herbalife for years, yet there are still so many gullible consumers that buy their products thinking they are 'high quality'.<br /><br />Scumbags indeed, as is anyone who knowingly rips off a consumer.Michellehttp://www.beingbritishisawesome.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-79766054957127296852013-01-10T03:45:42.175+11:002013-01-10T03:45:42.175+11:00Tobacco analogy is incorrect. Government HAS forc...Tobacco analogy is incorrect. Government HAS forced Tobacco to tell the truth about it's product, and consumers must decide. Herbalife is misleading it's customers. Assuming it is not shut down, it will still take a hit if it can't mislead anymore. There is also a big difference between buying an addictive product for a few bucks a pack and investing your life savings in a bogus business deal. Teens get hooked on a lifelong addiction to tobacco because they think it's cool. There is no "cool" in Herbalife.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04997275443439414480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-16266180428400808162013-01-10T00:49:40.775+11:002013-01-10T00:49:40.775+11:00Much more familiar indeed ponzi schemes
he was wr...Much more familiar indeed ponzi schemes <br />he was wrong about Merkin and he is wrong about hlf At a panel meeting discussing Bernie Madoff in January 2009, Ackman defended his long time friend J. Ezra Merkin stating, "Has Ezra committed a crime? I don’t think so,” "I think [Merkin] is an honest person, an intelligent person, an interesting person, a smart investor."[12][13][14] On April 6, 2009, Merkin was charged with civil fraud by the State of New York, for "secretly steering $2.4 billion in client money into Bernard Madoff's Ponzi fraud without their permission."[15] A settlement was reached on June 2012 requiring Merkin to pay $405 million to victims including the Metropolitan Council on Jewish Poverty.[16]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-8329358666824959842013-01-09T01:34:59.558+11:002013-01-09T01:34:59.558+11:00There is, in fact, little new in Mr. Ackman's ...There is, in fact, little new in Mr. Ackman's published analysis of 'Herbalife.'<br /><br />What is new, is that persons, such as the author of this Blog, have suddenly begun commenting on 'Herbalife,' because Bill Ackman has bet US$1.2 billions that 'Herbalife' is a fraud.<br /><br />http://mlmtheamericandreammadenightmare.blogspot.fr/2012/12/the-bosses-of-herbalife-have.html<br /><br />http://mlmtheamericandreammadenightmare.blogspot.fr/2013/01/how-does-herbalifemlm-bluff-function.html<br /><br />http://mlmtheamericandreammadenightmare.blogspot.fr/2013/01/herbalife-has-exhibited-universal.html<br /><br />http://mlmtheamericandreammadenightmare.blogspot.fr/2012/08/effectively-valueless-nu-skin-shares.htmlGeorge Baileynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-59667059772132988462013-01-08T04:53:51.549+11:002013-01-08T04:53:51.549+11:00I find it interesting that in some sense your appe...I find it interesting that in some sense your appearance on CNBC and other media is helping Ackman by drawing more attention to the firm. <br /><br />Of course you also aid the long side by pitching your thesis. But i have to wonder whether it there is any net benefit to being public about your position in the matter. <br /><br />Respectfully, <br /><br />No Mean Sum No Mean Sumhttp://www.nomeansum.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-2786887575991201122013-01-08T02:01:14.095+11:002013-01-08T02:01:14.095+11:00Simple question, but one that bears asking:
If yo...Simple question, but one that bears asking:<br /><br />If you were a Madoff investor in 2005 and somebody gave you a detailed breakdown of the scheme before it went nuclear, would you stay long based on the track-record of your previous gains?<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-22361172881732365922013-01-08T01:18:42.933+11:002013-01-08T01:18:42.933+11:00@Mike, I am assuming he's not shorting with hi...@Mike, I am assuming he's not shorting with his retail brokerage account in the usual conditions you and I would get, but that he has made a long term deal with someone to get fixed or otherwise predictable costs to cope with the odd short squeeze, and thus not be exposed to short term borrow cost volatility. I mean he's not an idiot who doesn't know about the mechanics of shorting...cighttp://commentisglee.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-17388510403326784662013-01-07T22:40:58.916+11:002013-01-07T22:40:58.916+11:00I think it's naive to think that the millions ...I think it's naive to think that the millions of HLF distributors will one day wake up and say "we've been had!". In fact, history shows that the people who had been had the most, are the ones who come back the most - see various religious end-of-days-sell-all-you-have cults. MLMs are very good at setting up emotional investment (in fact, it's one of their main drivers and I'd say their real business plan, whether they know it or not). <br /><br />So it's betting against human nature, and that tends to work only if someone else saves the day - which in this case almost certainly means regulator (govt). Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-58571135416487439192013-01-07T15:40:33.652+11:002013-01-07T15:40:33.652+11:00Herbalife should announce a special one time divid...Herbalife should announce a special one time dividend just like Texas Roadhouse TXRH did.<br /><br />Short investors must pay the true owner of the stock (The person they borrowed the stock from)for any dividends that the stock pays out.<br /><br />This would be a way to punish the short positions by making them come up with cash to cover the dividend.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-49045895169060355832013-01-07T10:33:32.348+11:002013-01-07T10:33:32.348+11:00Some ignorant comments on what is usually a smart ...Some ignorant comments on what is usually a smart comment blog. <br /><br />Michael R:<br />"So, basically, what you're saying is that the case against the Herbalife shorts is essentially the same as the case against the WaMu shorts?"<br /><br />WAMU was insolvent and went out of business/got taken over. What possible connection does this have to a profitable firm?! Serious question - I'd love to know what connection you think exists?<br /><br />cig:<br /><br />"He's only screwed if it goes way up from there and lasts and his short is not broken by technicalities"<br /><br />I don't think you know how being short works. It aint free. Being short costs money - you can't just sit there merrily short until you get bored. You can be very right on a short thesis and lose because your timing is off.<br /><br />The anonymous comment is very right that the target market for this money making scheme could not care less about Ackman and are very likely to believe in it more even if they did know. It is a well proven psychological fact that humans tend to STRENGTHEN their beliefs when proved wrong.<br /><br />Personally I think this is a bad place for money short or long. At least Ackman has the $$$ to cause some pain. If the author is looking for some "pop" profit he should take it and go play somewhere safer.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-77062416039371369862013-01-07T09:20:10.049+11:002013-01-07T09:20:10.049+11:00if you think of it the short term longs are reinfo...if you think of it the short term longs are reinforcing Ackman's case: the ideal price path for him is that the price stays flat at his entry point, so as to make buybacks more expensive and less effective, until they run out of money/punters, and then it can fall to zero.cighttp://commentisglee.wordpress.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-11612844399624681262013-01-07T08:42:33.405+11:002013-01-07T08:42:33.405+11:00Slightly off topic but with has anyone noticed tha...Slightly off topic but with has anyone noticed that Yakult (QCode=2267) seems ripe trading north of 40x FY1 EPS with sub 3% sales growth and sub 7% LT forecast EPS growth on the back of MLM-like touted growth derived from the proliferation of "Yakult Ladies" across China. Short interest has always been high in this name, and short-joy has been slim as they keep getting puked whether due to Danone fantasies, or Yakult-lady dreams. Nonetheless, it should be not be ignored in the same sentence as HLF or AVP. <br /><br />-C"Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-64069827221995082542013-01-07T05:25:00.918+11:002013-01-07T05:25:00.918+11:00I know several people in MLM programs (including A...I know several people in MLM programs (including Avon, but not Herbalife). The one thing they all have in common is that they are True Believers. No amount of reasoning or evidence can dissuade them from the righteousness of their scheme. I don't anticipate HLF distributors leaving in droves, and can see the managers placating their downlines by dismissing the Ackman as an evil short-seller (amazing that our society considers keeping crooks on their toes to be "evil"), and that Wall Street just "doesn't get HLF". And of course don't forget the old class war argument that Ackman and his ilk want to keep Jose down.<br /><br />Looking at Jan 2014 option prices, you can get a $25 put for $4.20, and a $50 call for $3.25 . The prices for Jan 2015 are $7/$4. Could be a play there, regardless of the outcome as the stock is worth either $0 or $70.mariusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-13145465005436150232013-01-07T04:12:58.633+11:002013-01-07T04:12:58.633+11:00The big question is these final distributors (who ...The big question is these final distributors (who become distributors just to get discount - i guess the company considers them as retail - Ackman these people are also buying because of bus opportunity)- will they buy the Herbalife product if<br /><br />1. They understand their super-slim chances of making money in this business<br /><br /><br />2. Without the business opportunity, will they pay 2 times the money for Herbalife than its nearest competition product . <br /><br />My biggest question about Ackman's thesis: How he plans to educate and dissuade people from getting into Herbalife bus opportunity. Just google ad won't do. Nor would a 350 page presentation. Keep in mind 80% of HLF is Non-USA. This is where I am not convinced.<br />Stocks DDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12288966234260002690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-38799236144505437342013-01-07T02:18:18.951+11:002013-01-07T02:18:18.951+11:00Is it not possible that one of hlf's deep pock...Is it not possible that one of hlf's deep pocketed<br />competitors in the product category might choose to adopt the same MLM strategy in expanding their own<br />distribution? They certainly have an opportunity to<br />expand their own profits by doing so, even while <br />offering a less skewed commission distribution to<br />their reps. (this strategy would be called competition) Wolandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06562438726763165471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-79977069230532236852013-01-06T12:49:04.871+11:002013-01-06T12:49:04.871+11:00Could you please give us more info on the lesbian ...Could you please give us more info on the lesbian Avon lady...... Pleasebuttmonkeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01768146682929912575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-11977567107655117972013-01-06T11:51:40.990+11:002013-01-06T11:51:40.990+11:00I've always wondered about Herbalife. I remem...I've always wondered about Herbalife. I remember that huge building they had on the 405 in LA. Is that still the Herbalife building? Totally agree that Government takes forever to do anything. Doubt it will be involved with Herbalife anytime soon. Mary Kaplanhttp://www.kgaction.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-66265664971537061282013-01-06T10:58:43.345+11:002013-01-06T10:58:43.345+11:00I'd bet Greenberg was a HLF short. He seemed l...I'd bet Greenberg was a HLF short. He seemed like he was wrapped tighter than a snare drum. Then again it doesn't make much sense to short a profitable company whos stock just went from $25 to $37.<br />How high can this stock go? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-83570692478753460912013-01-06T08:02:26.392+11:002013-01-06T08:02:26.392+11:00I work in an MLM company on another continent and ...I work in an MLM company on another continent and I have three comments<br />1) it is just a deep misconception to think that all the millions of distributors in MLM "is in for the dream". (I can understand that a spectator takes such a view though). 90-95% are happy consumers, like any FMCG. And perhaps 10% tries every year to go for bigger sales volumes and most fail, like entrepreneurs fail daily in any industry. <br />1) HLF has pumped and dumped some markets but have recovered and overcome previous sales peaks. Not all markets have developed like Japan. Fact is, as a competitor, HLF is very sucessful at the moment gaining momentum after some slow years and creates challenges for us.<br />2) the whole idea that some PR attack in the US is going to affect the recruiting and unravel the whole business is incredibly naive. 99% of future distributors In the US will never have heard of this debacle. Among the current ones, they are all aware of what they are doing, they are not duped into something. If anything, they probably hate wall street and the rich elite even more after this and become more loyal to HLFAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com