tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post2454009545204608193..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: The final failure of the Meiji right-wing ideology … Japan fades into the future with a walking stick…John Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-14010980165223889082010-02-20T09:15:06.268+11:002010-02-20T09:15:06.268+11:00Japan is polishing brass on the titanic. Its alwa...Japan is polishing brass on the titanic. Its always amazed me how the west continually misunderstands Japan- this is not a free market or a democracy in the western sense and the system has been threatening to cave in on itself for decades. That time may finally be at hand. I go over the issue a bit on my blog: <br /><br />http://2and20vision.wordpress.com/2010/02/19/modern-mercantilism-and-the-demise-of-japan/Bleichroederhttp://2and20vision.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-52321199121590050212010-02-19T13:05:59.415+11:002010-02-19T13:05:59.415+11:00I did not realise that this blog has turned into a...I did not realise that this blog has turned into a forum for dark fantasy writers.Peter Phanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07961974357451001679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-68617389003144042092010-02-17T14:09:38.550+11:002010-02-17T14:09:38.550+11:00The Japanese will never learn. That's why thei...The Japanese will never learn. That's why their economy will melt away like an ice cream cone on a hot sidewalk. A few decades from now, Japan will be a hollow country of the old and the useless. The young, realizing that their earnings will be taxed to nothingness to support a dying generation, will emigrate enmass to other countries. Brazil? China? Australia? Who knows?<br /><br />Meanwhile, society will unravel. Hundreds of years of social contract will bend and then break as the old lose their pensions and the young their livelihoods. People will riot, and the country's industrial machine will grind to a halt.<br /><br />But the Japanese would be still too proud to change. At some point it will be too late: the country would cease to be a place young productive people would actually WANT to emigrate to. When that happens... back to the dark ages they go.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-88375836299854838402010-02-14T18:39:18.335+11:002010-02-14T18:39:18.335+11:00I read blogs like Hempton (and David Merkel) becau...I read blogs like Hempton (and David Merkel) because they try to be original and sophisticaded about speculation and financial markets, which unfortunately are really not intellectually complex. so humble traders in lowly southern europe such as myself feel they are wasting their graduate education just for the sake of making some money that is not taxed 50% and welcome intellectual discussions as a distraction (financial markets only as an excuse in financial blogs, we all just trade charts to make the money) <br />-- <br />Obviously, having studied at UCLA in California in 1990-1992 and see it turning now "into Mexifornia" and lived in London and Milan afterwards and seen them deteriorating (for the indigenous middle and working class, non for hedge fund and bankers types) I wonder what in the world makes ratonal people such as Hempton repeat the nonsense about immigration (and I lived in the last Italian enclave of Brooklyn, soon to diseappear as a million Italians had to live it since the '70s)<br />--<br />So here is an interesting thought, what exactly prevents we (of europeans origins and pale skin) to follow the wisdom of the chosen ones (as applied to themselves) ?<br />--<br />Australian Jewish leader Rabbi Is Leibler, a staunch defender of multiculturalism as a model of Australia stated “”There is a need to sit together and establish a way in which Australians can recapture that spirit of multiculturalism which I think we are all proud being part and parcel of, and which is really under threat.” <br />-- The same Australian Jewish leader was recently reported as saying that multiculturalism has no place in Israel. “[Israel] is a country which was set up and created as a Jewish country for the Jews.”gzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14615590897074345988noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-42247389763487983662010-02-14T16:58:48.976+11:002010-02-14T16:58:48.976+11:00ITT, lots of weeaboo BAWWWWWWWW.ITT, lots of weeaboo BAWWWWWWWW.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-34328987829124319142010-02-13T12:59:47.220+11:002010-02-13T12:59:47.220+11:00Since this is a blog run by a couple of Australian...Since this is a blog run by a couple of Australians who charge a fee to buy and sell stocks with other people's money, you don't want to offend too many of the pinks. <br /><br />Australia is a very bigoted company. What would you say, drunken bogan types outnumber productive people on a 3 to 1ratio?<br /><br />Careful now. <br /><br />They might be pink, but their money's still green.<br /><br /><br />anon,<br /><br />Bob Dobbstylecouncilerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05702739047257874061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-24869944286123181452010-02-13T04:23:36.624+11:002010-02-13T04:23:36.624+11:00Ampontan needs readers
That blog is very weak , a...Ampontan needs readers<br /><br />That blog is very weak , and the best way to increase readership is to attack someone else .<br />That is the work of a hack<br /><br /><br /><br />.Ampotan crack headnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-58973528026705800402010-02-13T03:22:03.417+11:002010-02-13T03:22:03.417+11:00it's fascinating that living longer makes us f...it's fascinating that living longer makes us feel poorer. that's so obviously wrong -- how could it possibly be true?babar ganeshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01898299856773302141noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-41524771475514223982010-02-12T21:52:12.749+11:002010-02-12T21:52:12.749+11:00I spent a bit of time in Cambodia -
The Cambodia...I spent a bit of time in Cambodia - <br /><br />The Cambodian Communists were PROPORTIONATELY as evil as they come... it was just that they did it to a small population. <br /><br />There are PLENTY of post war regimes and post-war events that are murderous.<br /><br />Your list excludes the biggest one which is the various congo wars.<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-89455686990879728042010-02-12T19:29:29.363+11:002010-02-12T19:29:29.363+11:00By the way, if you sum up the high end death tolls...By the way, if you sum up the high end death tolls for Russia from the WWI, civil war, Stalin, WWII and try to reconcile them with census data <br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_Soviet_Union#Population_2<br /><br />you need some amazing jumps in yearly fertility of the Russian/Soviet population to account for the relatively smooth growth. Not easy to reconcile, even if just taking the numbers of the 1897 and the 1989 census and ignoring any in-between communist data. <br /><br />In particular it is unfortunate to observe, that western democracy brought Russia a population decline. Something which even Stalin was not able to achieve in the long run.IFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-70543983834518253222010-02-12T19:07:31.039+11:002010-02-12T19:07:31.039+11:00"I suggested that some post-war regimes have ..."I suggested that some post-war regimes have exceeded the Japanese in China. Actually I can think of only one - which is Post War Stalin."<br /><br />I would let that slip if you said "Pre War Stalin". But "Post War" shows either ignorance, or needs some explanation of the numbers on your side. <br /><br />And why are you swiping Vietnam, Korea, Khmer Rouge, great leap, Rwanda under the carpet? Does an involvement of Australian troops remove an event from the list?<br /><br />Even if we take the numbers from http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/warstat1.htm at face value, post war Stalin is small (compared to Stalin pre-war, Japan in China, and the other mentioned post-war crimes), mostly limited to returning soldiers. He seemed to have mellowed in his old days.<br /><br />Not defending Stalin, your world view just seems to be off.IFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-52668988782881126922010-02-12T17:55:02.932+11:002010-02-12T17:55:02.932+11:00your case that Japan is deeply racist rests on the...your case that Japan is deeply racist rests on the idea that Japanese pimps don't let their hookers sleep with foreigners, which is entirely mistakenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-58091209546672962562010-02-12T17:15:13.762+11:002010-02-12T17:15:13.762+11:00Japan is a culture built on trust and responsibil...Japan is a culture built on trust and responsibility. A trust that many Australians visiting Niseko abuse regularly.<br /><br />Trust and responsibility is such a staple of Japanese culture that it also threatens to be their great undoing. A trust that may be hard for both the aging and coming generations of Japanese to fulfill.<br /><br />One night in Hokkaido, which just happened to be Australian Day, I counted less than ten people I’d consider obese. <br /><br />Even then, by Australian standards, it's hard to say the word obese, it's more like they ‘let themselves go" a bit. <br /><br />Japanese culture is one of trust that you won’t steal, hence the unnattended, unchained bikes that litter Sapporo (pop 1.7 million). And the responsibility not to cross the road until the red man turns green, which is why a Japanese man stands on a dead street at 11 pm, snowflakes dissolving into his jacket, waiting for the light to change.<br /><br />While the trust offers great rewards, in the form of a safe, efficient society, there are serious consequences if you fuck up. Japan’s crime rate is one of the lowest in the developed world, with treason and homicide both punishable by death. But it’s their way of dealing with lesser crime that is particularly curious. If found guilty of an offense in Japan, pennance reaches beyond the criminal, to the innocent, the family. In Japan, felons are named and shamed for misdemeanours as minor as petty thievery, sullying forever more the family name. You have not only failed in your responsibility to the state but to your lineage. Both weigh heavily here.<br /><br />The diet in Japan is pure. And like everything else, the Japanese exercise responsibility and restraint with eating. The result: the biggest population of pensioners in the developed world. A problem threatening economic apocalypse as a result of a gigantic labour shortfall.<br /><br />By 2055 it is estimated half their population will be pensioners, a dilemma compounded by the lowest fertility rate in the western world (1.34 children per woman compared to USA’s 2.1).<br /><br />What do you do? Does the government pull the responsibility string, and ask the old to fuck off into the dirt? Then ask the young to fulfill their responsibility, and fuck a lot, mate in excess really irresponsibly? Surely not. Right?<br /><br />Critics have labeled it “the hurry up and die scheme.” In 2008, the Japanese government implemented a health initiative offering financial incentive for hospitals to punt over 75s after 100 days of care. The idea being to move aged care away from professionals to the amateurs at home. With, it must be said, some obvious consequences. It would seem the youth of Japan are set for a wild ride. <br /> <br /><br />Oh yes. Compared to the western world's go at socialized medicine, in the long term, China's one child policy is going to look a modern medicine miracle. <br /><br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />Bob DobbAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-29361530837989295612010-02-12T16:58:02.172+11:002010-02-12T16:58:02.172+11:00Why do you feel a country needs to have a growing ...Why do you feel a country needs to have a growing population to have a high standard of living?<br /><br />If Japan's population drops by 50% it can stil be a thriving, modern country, with a high standard of lving.<br /><br />The problem with you speculators is the only lens you look through is that of "growth" and hence "profits"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-78517180582826161982010-02-12T14:34:41.784+11:002010-02-12T14:34:41.784+11:00John,
From what I can gather, Japan desires abov...John, <br /><br />From what I can gather, Japan desires above all to remain Japanese. And as Anonymous @ 1:53 touched on, it has as much or more to do with language and culture as it does with "race".<br /><br />I think that contemporary anime - especially Code Geass, Fullmetal Alchemist, and Bleach - provides insight into how today's young Japanese are imagining - and re-imagining - themselves. <br /><br />And while contemporary anime certainly isn't devoid of critical self-examination (c.f. Samurai Champloo), I mainly see an effort to rehabilitate and revise Bushido.<br /><br />Embrace of a multi-cultural future - specifically the western conception of multiculturalism - well, not so much.<br /><br />Personally, I'm disinclined to heap the "racist" calumny on a people who mainly just want to remain who they are.lewy14https://www.blogger.com/profile/07524380685282662887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-39863230154728604422010-02-12T02:46:39.730+11:002010-02-12T02:46:39.730+11:00"... these ideologies were far more murderous..."... these ideologies were far more murderous than anything imposed by the Brits ...."<br /><br />You're not serious, are you? Are you one of those British Empire revisionists?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-43720072543704203422010-02-11T23:33:40.132+11:002010-02-11T23:33:40.132+11:00"There is a solution - immigration"
It&...<i>"There is a solution - immigration"</i><br /><br />It's certainly a quick fix, but is it a sustainable one ? As I pointed out the other day, if the new immigrants adapt to host levels of fertility, the whole exercise will need to be repeated in the future. If they don't, that implies cultural separation which brings its own problems.<br /><br />A sustainable solution might be<br /><br />a) to have babies at replacement levels - this might imply serious pro-natalist policies - such as a tax allowance associated with each child, to the point where some parents might pay no tax if they had enough children. This would be better than the opposite tack of paying benefits for children, which certainly in the UK has encouraged the growth of a tax-funded, non-working underclass. Eugenics is a dirty concept nowadays, but the UK tax and benefit system is positively dysgenic - only the very rich or the benefit-funded very poor can afford large families.<br /><br />b) make the necessary adjustments in the interim - were all Aussie mums to have 3 kids it would still leave the boomer bulge. Raising retirement age is one obvious possibility.<br /><br />John, why do you think (as you appear to do) that immigration can be anything but a temporary fix for a society that doesn't have enough babies ?<br /><br />Eddie Bravo - you said that "the U.K. is arguably one of the more successful multicultural western democracies". I think the jury is <a href="http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article7019841.ece" rel="nofollow">very much out on that one</a>.<br /><br /><i>"Is Britain broken? Today's Populus poll for The Times adds some broad brush strokes to a depressing picture. More than two people in five say that they would emigrate if they could. Some 70 per cent believe that society is broken; 73 per cent say that politics is broken. Most revealingly, 68 per cent think that "people who play by the rules always get a raw deal"."</i>Labanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12031578024191117985noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-83089652912199112832010-02-11T21:20:19.323+11:002010-02-11T21:20:19.323+11:00Thirty years is a long time. Denazification was n...Thirty years is a long time. Denazification was not really a process - indeed it was not followed through. But it was an idea - and it made nazism non-respectable.<br /><br />Given 30 years ideas change. <br /><br />I am not ruling anything out - but I do think JGBs are a lousy 30 year investment.<br /><br />(There are PLENTY of nice companies in Japan though. And they are not expensive. Its a pity about the macroeconomics.)<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-40407633580503499612010-02-11T19:54:47.608+11:002010-02-11T19:54:47.608+11:00John
A good post. You're right about zombie i...John<br /><br />A good post. You're right about zombie industrial companies being the problem A few comments:<br /><br />1. Before annoying the hard-line nationalists of Japan, take a moment to reflect on the tragic fate of Iris Chang who authored The Rape of Nanking. <br />"The book was the main source of fame for Iris Chang, who was well-respected in China for raising awareness of the Nanking Massacre in the Western world.[33] At the same time, Chang received hate mail (primarily from Japanese ultranationalists),[4] threatening notes on her car and believed her phone was tapped. She would respond overwhelmingly to any question of the validity of her work. Her own mother said the book "made Iris sad". Chang suffered from depression and was diagnosed with "brief reactive psychosis" in August 2004. She began taking medications to stabilize her mood.[4] She wrote:<br />I can never shake my belief that I was being recruited, and later persecuted, by forces more powerful than I could have imagined. Whether it was the CIA or some other organization I will never know. As long as I am alive, these forces will never stop hounding me.[4]<br />Succumbing to her battle with depression, Chang took her own life in November 2004." (Notes from Wikipedia)<br />There is no doubt she was relentlessly hounded by the state-sponsored nationalists. The most prominent of her vitriolic critics, who was very free with his ad personam attacks, was a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia. So much for the diplomatic touch.<br /><br />2. Regarding the Japanese and their fear of STDs, I should advise anyone thinking that the Japanese are unaffected by STDs that you should watch out. Because the medical establishment there is convinced that nice Japanese kids could never suffer such ailments, there is a culture of denial that permits an epidemic of infection. The rates for chlamydia for example are apparently much higher than you might find in the highly promiscuous population of the San fernando valley. What you won't test for you won't find. <br />3. The chances of Japan turning into a thriving multi-cultural society? A snowball has a better shot in hell. Hey, John, I thought all hedge fund guys were hard-headed.Simple Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11024613252144635113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-42983353472893943562010-02-11T19:01:18.630+11:002010-02-11T19:01:18.630+11:00It is fair to assign some of the soviet deaths to ...It is fair to assign some of the soviet deaths to Stalin - and probably a good whack thereafter.<br /><br />I suggested that some post-war regimes have exceeded the Japanese in China. Actually I can think of only one - which is Post War Stalin.<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-46788579213668426642010-02-11T15:59:58.553+11:002010-02-11T15:59:58.553+11:00John do you have investments in japan?
Are you sh...John do you have investments in japan?<br /><br />Are you short the government bonds?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-91306200632873373122010-02-11T15:51:39.178+11:002010-02-11T15:51:39.178+11:00This is just opinion, but I suspect that immigrati...This is just opinion, but I suspect that immigration from Thailand and the Philippines would work culturally for Japan. I would mention Taiwan, but they don't have people to spare.<br /><br />Japan is a complex place. I have friends in Kobe, because of the church that I am a part of. They run into discrimination for being Protestant, and thus not able to give worship to the Emperor.<br /><br />Away from that, there is still discrimination there against the Ainu (the original inhabitants), and the burakumin, occupations that deal with death, and some others.<br /><br />The book "Ugly Americans" gave me some insight into the present culture -- honorable in many ways, but seamy in many others. <br /><br />Japan at least does this for us -- it is so far ahead on the demographic decline curve that it will shine a light on the ultimate impacts.<br /><br />PS -- I will likely have brown grandchildren, but then five of my eight children we adopted, and they are black to varying degrees. This is a very different world than the one my parents grew up in in Wisconsin in the Great Depression.David Merkelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05073877918072914309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-41852157024022614392010-02-11T15:51:27.145+11:002010-02-11T15:51:27.145+11:00It seems only sporting to assign at least *some* o...It seems only sporting to assign at least *some* of the Soviet casualties to Stalin, John. That might make Hitler's record a little less impressive relative to the Japan's.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-18293000298386361042010-02-11T14:11:26.490+11:002010-02-11T14:11:26.490+11:00To Jingsu who wants to argue that what Japan did i...To Jingsu who wants to argue that what Japan did in China exceeds what happened in Europe - sorry - no dice.<br /><br />Soviet casualties on mean estimate exceeded Chinese casualties in WW2 - and to that you need to add almost all the other European casualties.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties<br /><br />The Japanese were murderous - but Hitler remains in a class of his own ...<br /><br />Chinese propaganda on this is also suspect.<br /><br />Also there are observable blips in the Chinese population spectrum related to stress in particular times. The big blip in China remains the Great Leap Forward famine - and that was self-inflicted.<br /><br />JJohn Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-74614759842942297422010-02-11T13:53:50.122+11:002010-02-11T13:53:50.122+11:00you will notice that the blogger refers to living ...you will notice that the blogger refers to living in Saga... which is like the Wagga Wagga or Dubbo of Kyushu... they'd be desparate for any business ;-)<br /><br />The main reason foreigners are turned away from Japanese cat houses is similar to the reason for being turned away from hot spring bath-houses/onsen in non-touristy areas -> etiquette & the way you go about things, even in a cathouse, is very important. Not doing things the right way will put the other customers off their "lunch".<br /><br />If you speak near native level Japanese and show that you understand the conventions, you will get in ;-) Noting that in northern Japan Russians will be excluded no matter what, bath house, cat house or otherwise. Which is where a lot of the bad press comes from as things tend to get heated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com