tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post2013095565317782987..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Coronavirus – getting angryJohn Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-22025709036197017812020-05-18T04:24:33.756+10:002020-05-18T04:24:33.756+10:00Y is the USA and UK not bothered,about the COVID d...Y is the USA and UK not bothered,about the COVID deaths ?<br /><br />Could it be that they want it ? Who are the dead ? The dead are the pensioners,and the persons,who are fatally sick.dindooohindoo<br /><br />Posit No.1<br /><br />Assuming that these persons,had a residual life of 15 years,and we can assume that,by August,2020,there will be around 600000 dead in the West.<br /><br />The pension to a pensioner would not be less than 12,000 USD per annum, on an average,at the minimum.In addition, the medical and other social costs,on an aged pensioner,would be not less than another 8,000 USD per annum.<br /><br />If they die,then on 6,00,000 people,if the West saves 20,000 USD per annum,you net USD 12 Billion,PER ANNUM - which will be around 200-300 billion for 15 yeears<br /><br />One could argue that the US Fed just printed,the USD 12 Billion - but now it need not.The Youth in the west,had to work at high rates of tax and deductions - to finance the aged pension and health care benefits - which ultimately,led to outsourcing.<br /><br />The scam would be shocking,if the dead,had no insurance ! That would be telling ! If 6,00,000 are dead,with insurance and an average insurance claim,of USD 1,00,000 - then you have a bomb - to wipe out the insurers.<br /><br />If 10 million die - we are looking at net savings of USD 200 billion per annum and USD 3 Trillion over 15 years.This will also solve the health insurance problems in the US/EU,as the high claim insurers,will cease to exist - and thus lower the insurance costs,for the young,and the cost of labour in manufacturing.<br /><br />Posit No.2<br /><br />Large number of services and industries,in the west,will die out.That will release labour and reprice resources and rents - to drastically lower costs - and that will make,"Make in USA",viable <br /><br />How will the state finance the loss of tax revenue and GDP.Ultimately,the state will have to demonetise the deposits, in banks, of the westerners.Simple ! The USA will not be able to demonetise the PRC holdings of US T-bills - not even if the PRC sinks a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea.<br /><br />Posit No.3<br /><br />All the nations who borrowed loans from PRC - will now force the PRC to do debt write offs.That will be a huge loss to the PRC,after the manufacturing shift from PRC to West.If 200 million people are unemployed in PRC - then you have Tiananmen - Part 2.<br /><br />Of Course,the PRC could also force the IMF and the WB,to waive loans - but the harm to the PRC,will be done 1st.<br /><br />Posit No.4<br /><br />Trump postpones the US Polls,as people cannot stand in queues and no electioneering is possible - and he has the cure - and by September,the pensioners are dead - death rate and infections rates drops ..... who is the gainer ? If Trump is winning - Putin will stay calm - else,he might attack Eastern EU.If Trump is winning - then it will be the last chance for PRC to annex Taiwan and Vietnam - and make Trump lose face. But the odds of PRC action is medium.<br /><br />Posit No.5<br /><br />With massive unemployment in the West - the migrants will exit.Asians were made to clean toilets - that is their worth.They will exit.That will solve the migrants problem,rents and property rates will fall,labour will reprice,and the Westerners,will have to,start to work<br /><br />The West has to take a BIG PICTURE view.South East Asia and Indian and Nepal ,are over populated,and there is no humanity there.There is no sentience,in the "so called humans".They are robots - and 80% of them,have to die.Their time is over - they are obsolete, a dead weight,and a burden on earth.This will de-price the resources sector,lower demand,and solve the environment problem,forever.<br /><br />Africans have been exploited,for at least ,2000 years - and they deserve,many more chances.<br /><br />There are 3 simple steps<br /><br />Are the "so-called humans" - having a sentience - depending on their "individual and collective actions"<br />If not,then they are "robots"<br />It is time to "terminate the robots"<br />samir sardananoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-36342329720851491862020-04-27T13:36:29.549+10:002020-04-27T13:36:29.549+10:00Not only in travel industry but CoronaVirus is now...Not only in travel industry but <a href="http://coronavirusindia.tech/" rel="nofollow">CoronaVirus</a> is now effecting almost every business such as travel, hotel, aviation, share market, oil, education, game, IT etc. Precaution is better than cure. So, keep precautions.MasterPiecehttps://coronavirusindia.tech/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-39362856668891392952020-04-02T09:56:54.235+11:002020-04-02T09:56:54.235+11:00Totally agreed.
This cretinism was truly painful t...Totally agreed.<br />This cretinism was truly painful to watch. A lobotomized monkey would have done better.<br />Especially last weeks, after Italy already entered the "real problems" stage, and everybody could see "herd immunity" and "small-scale, isolated quarantines without a blow to the economy which is a lockdown" on live TV and Youtube from a country where, unlike China, it isn't expected that everything is censored and doctored.<br /><br />i could brag that I was smarter than the entire UK government and the entire US government, and made some money off it, but it's quite hollow: not because Im such a genius, but because they all played head-in-the-sand for multiple weeks the way 5-year-old kids learn not to.Dmitryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00216625793266509034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-64922630340158117082020-03-30T06:02:20.088+11:002020-03-30T06:02:20.088+11:00Lock-downs are great in theory, I don't see th...Lock-downs are great in theory, I don't see them working in reality. You're not going to have a complete lock-down, agree that we need the people who work at the hospitals to continue coming to work. Then remember that they don't all get there by mass transportation, so you need gas stations and possibly auto repair shops. To fill the gas (and grocery stores) you need trucks. Truck drivers need truck stops. fuel needs refineries. Groceries need warehouses and shipping and trains and docks. I'm guessing all those things need electricity so the power plants need to keep running. <br /><br />When it's all said and done, what percentage of the population can be in a significant six week lock-down? If you can only isolate say 30% (at best)of your population, does it work? I don't think so, it will slow the spread some, but it isn't going to drive it anywhere close to zero.<br /><br />Also, enforcement, are you going to jail non-compliance? Do you keep the court system running for that, or do you just let the cops enforce it without trials? Are you willing to be part of a jury pool around possibly infected people?<br /><br />There are a lot of details that need to be considered (define which stores/factories are essential), that would need to be figured out correctly or it would have some significant repercussions, do you know which factories are making all the inputs to the parts that get assembled into medical equipment, or drugs (what exactly is the inert filler material in those pills and where does it come from? Please don't forget that the paper plant is essential unless you were one of the people who bought a years worth of toilet paper earlier this month.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04940722690936818415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-48597801499271934302020-03-29T20:03:49.272+11:002020-03-29T20:03:49.272+11:00as a mainland Chinese who always identity myself a...as a mainland Chinese who always identity myself as pro-Western, pro-democracy,<br />I'm totally SHOCKED & CONFUSED by incompetence of Western politicians in this virus crisis.<br />US has plenty of time to react, yet Trump call it ‘no more danger than flu’, and u guys just totally WASTE that time<br />and now, deaths double in just 48h to surpass 2k. Yet Cuomo still refused NYC lockdown. totally disaster!what a tragedytheweekndhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17093347373886273555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-4131742384959540482020-03-27T06:35:31.454+11:002020-03-27T06:35:31.454+11:00Sorry, just spotted my mistake. They are just tal...Sorry, just spotted my mistake. They are just talking about using ALSS not ALSS plus blood purification. Ignore my question pleaseThedrugsdontworknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-74161639721263796702020-03-27T06:14:03.822+11:002020-03-27T06:14:03.822+11:00The Chinese produce this nice handbook on fighting...The Chinese produce this nice handbook on fighting COVID19. <br /><br />https://twitter.com/davidasinclair/status/1240749385920765954<br /><br />On page 24 deep in the minutia it describes there recommendation for some of the more precarious patients<br /><br />"The artificial liver support system (ALSS) and <b>blood purification</b> can effectively diminish inflammatory mediators and cytokine cascade and prevent the incidence of shock, hypoxemia and respiratory distress syndrome"<br /><br />I think the two words "BLOOD PURIFICATION" opens an opportunity up for an otherwise uninteresting company called Cytosorbents Corp . They have a blood purification solution approved in Europe for Septic Shock. I think this is a game changer for a spluttering small company. What are your thoughts? There is also a Chinese company in this space, I believe, but not approved in Europe.TheDrugsDon'tWorknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-54423575568830868782020-03-26T15:35:28.318+11:002020-03-26T15:35:28.318+11:00Please listen to epidemiologists and other medical...Please listen to epidemiologists and other medical staff with sound knowledge in this area - do not listen to hedge fund managers and other non-experts. With all due respect John, your opinions are not worth much on this particular issue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-32117751000606405672020-03-25T00:11:13.604+11:002020-03-25T00:11:13.604+11:00You are such a douche it is laughable.You are such a douche it is laughable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-3939599232370563152020-03-24T17:02:03.719+11:002020-03-24T17:02:03.719+11:00God! Lot of differing opinions here.
I'll co...God! Lot of differing opinions here. <br /><br />I'll come back in 12 months and see who was right...unless its the same person writing all the comments of course! Harrynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-2225853083084218062020-03-24T13:25:07.651+11:002020-03-24T13:25:07.651+11:00There are enough experts advising Government who h...There are enough experts advising Government who have a broader and deeper knowledge of all the issues you argue about. Do you presume to know more than they do, or is it wisdom that you have which they don't?<br />I see your article as presuming yes, and the responses on here mostly presume yes as well.uncertainlyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07457685428742552640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-61370785763749012622020-03-24T12:46:23.536+11:002020-03-24T12:46:23.536+11:00You may want to consider taking this one step furt...You may want to consider taking this one step further. Let's reinstate conscription, bring the millions of Americans who just got laid off into national service to defeat this virus. Give them a paycheck, a purpose, and a little hero propaganda (maybe wipe out their student loans while you're at it with a reverse GI-bill equivalent).<br /><br />Instead of tanks and grenades, they will get thermometer guns and test swabs. We can use the empty schools, conference halls, and convention centers as temporary hospitals and self-quarantine safety zones (so you dont infect your roommates or loved ones). Kills three birds with one stone: pandemic outbreak, unemployment, healthcare overrun.Brianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01634185175015652336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-6721727016634535912020-03-22T19:46:38.923+11:002020-03-22T19:46:38.923+11:00Rest assured that every western country (and the d...Rest assured that every western country (and the developing world, through WHO) has had planning in place for a pandemic at least since SARS in the early 00's. We must understand that our cultures and the way we organize society is completely different. <br />China already has a police state in place to control their population, with camera surveillance, facial recognition on streets and in homes, a population used to this unlike in democraties, and an ever present communist party in every community ready to enforce central command. What they don't have is freedom of speech, which would otherwise made this contagion recognized far earlier. Asian cultures also have a deep founded respect towards their elderly, whom they are willing to protect at a great cost.<br />Italy then. Does not have a functioning democracy or healthcare system. Was also not helped by warnings from China of the 100k textile workers from Wuhan region now working in the Lombardy textile factories bought by Chinese companies. They don't have paid sick leave and probably live as cramped up as possible, perhaps even sleeping in their factories by help of local corruption. This is an even better breeding ground than in China and the corona virus has probably been within the Italian borders since new year without authorities knowing. Italy also has a deep found distrust towards government, the most number of smokers in Europe and a very social culture built upon interactions with both friends and strangers on the street. Many also live close with their elderly in extended families. Their only mode of action now given the circumstances is a widespread lock-down so as not to overburden the healthcare system nation wide. The cases we see in ICU today means 4x cases hospitalized in two weeks given exponential doubling of infected every three days and about 1 week until they end up in ICU.<br />Rest of Europe then. The price tag to a human life year has been 50kUSD/QALY for other healthcare interventions, so European countries expect a cost stemming from Covid-19 of about 12 to 25% of GDP without overburdening of healthcare. Europe does not have the advantages of a single communist state laid out above. It is far too late to eradicate the disease right now. Hence flattening the curve with measures that keeps the healthcare system in check without destroying the economy far greater than the cost of the 12-25% GDP of the virus itself. But also not lower than that because of the social contract implied by public healthcare to defend health of all citizens up to the cost of 50kUSD/QALY. <br />The US then. Rich country without public healthcare and many uninsured is a unique scenario. No paid sick leave, minimum wage jobs in the services industry creates no incentive for many young people to quarantine themselves with minor illnesses. No testing in place to verify infection, so no way of knowing if they are infected, and no serology test in place to know who have been infected. And the worst head of state the most powerful nation has ever seen in place to decide the course of action. Since it is probably far too late to contain the disease within certain states, the plan of attack must be different. If the US does not decide to flatten the curve within the whole nation, if it is going to be successful in eradicating disease within one state it would have to shut down state borders and quarantine everyone within with help of the military. The economic toll would likely be high as it would hurt consumption in other states as well. The US does not have a collective culture, has polarized media, no testing in place to relieve people from quarantine, many uninsured, minimum wage people without incentive to quarantine as they are now also most likely without a job. The most likely scenario is for Trump to see this one out and try to gain political points in his media so as to secure his re-election.Tiempohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04472460398730311769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-54308949755175729562020-03-22T12:27:00.187+11:002020-03-22T12:27:00.187+11:00John / Bronte:
Why not put all of your recommenda...John / Bronte:<br /><br />Why not put all of your recommendations into a 12-15 page white paper and send it to your extensive distribution list of journalists, politicians, fund managers, etc? Given your prescience and expertise regarding the virus (you can include in the white paper all of the diligence you did and how you predicted the current crisis), I think people will definitely pay attention to your recommendations on how to handle things. <br /><br />Bronte & you may thus go down in history as "The Hedge Fund / HF Manager that Saved the World Economy" - it will make Dirty Money seem like nothing (imagine just the fundraising opportunities, let alone lives saved). And not only that, but your long book should show massive gains if your recommendations help get the large economies in the West back on their feet quickly. A "win-win" if I've ever seen one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-42418240379689289652020-03-22T03:24:12.459+11:002020-03-22T03:24:12.459+11:00A tested make-your-own mask design exists (search ...A tested make-your-own mask design exists (search scmp.com for "make your own mask"). They are not perfect, but if the sick person and the healthy person wear one then the population benefits would be substantial since the virus would have to get past two masks to infect. There is a fitting saying common in England: "God helps those who help themselves".fencepostnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-13592788369876229942020-03-22T01:36:54.853+11:002020-03-22T01:36:54.853+11:00We were told that the mortality rate for h1n1 was ...We were told that the mortality rate for h1n1 was 1-1.5%. 4 years later it ended up being 0.02%, over 60m Americans were infected but 12k people died. I see no reason [as yet] why this virus will be significantly different. Nobody knows the infection rate yet, only the sick rate and the death rate based on the sick rate. I think the R rate has been overstated to panic the public into changing behavior, the Chinese got it under 0.30 in a matter of weeks.<br /><b><br />Agree 110% that we need better testing to ensure sick people aren't going out so we can reduce the R number. And more ventilators.</b><br /><br />I was on a conf call with Dr. Michel Mina of Harvard U. epidemiology this week and even he brought up the salient point that you can't quarantine Americans for 1-3 months, and then do it again a 2nd and 3rd time because the virus will still be 'bouncing around' out in the world, that's why flattening the curve is so important. Otherwise, it will destroy the US economy completely. <br /><br />I think you and Bill are clearly being led by the panic-driven media. yoyodynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08061273602845442703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-85970544199337292212020-03-21T18:58:43.253+11:002020-03-21T18:58:43.253+11:00The irony is i haven't seen anyone mention tak...The irony is i haven't seen anyone mention taking Vitamin C to slow and/or prevent the virus. Isn't this common knowledge? Apparently not. The key is the blood levels have to be high enough - much like intravenous treatment which is available to the doctors. We already have this yet the medical community is falling all over themselves for a vaccine or drug approach? i forget, drugs are profitable, yet less effective. Go figure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-62614312503135859992020-03-21T17:32:38.480+11:002020-03-21T17:32:38.480+11:00Bigger picture looks a bit different. Australia ha...Bigger picture looks a bit different. Australia had 160,909 deaths in 2017, that's 440 a day, (although maybe 17 % were preventable). That helps put Covid 19 deaths in perspective.<br /><br />Men born 1960-62 can, if they make it to 65, expect to live until age 76; <br />women from the same cohort can expect to live to 81, (again that's if they make it to 65). Don't have the life tables but it's a fair proxy for the cohort born 1955, now aged 65.<br /><br />Source here: /www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/life-expectancy<br /><br />So that's 11 years for men, 16 for women, all aged 65. <br />Here's the assumptions in my rough calculation- <br /> -equal numbers men and women, same mortality rate from virus<br /> -the group aged >65 all share same life expectancy, 11 for men, 16 for women (not true but will do for upper bound illustration)<br /> -population size 25.464 million and ages > 65 comprise 15 % of total (2016 census)<br /> -90 % infection rate for population<br /> -assume anyone < 65 unaffected by virus (sure, not strictly true but closer than <br /> (mostly older) policy makers care to admit)<br /><br /> Following your lead, 3 scenarios.<br /><br /> - 30 % mortality in the >65 group, men and women have same rate<br /> <br /> Lost Years due to Covid 19, men and women = (male deaths x expected future years men) + (female deaths x expected future years women)<br /> Lost years = 14 million<br /> <br /> -50 % mortality<br /> Lost years = 24 million<br /> -75% mortality<br /> Lost years = 35 million<br /><br />That's a lot of Lost Years if we do nothing.<br /><br />But... what's the cost in Life Years if we shut down the economy for 3 months? Because there will be an effect on life expectancy. Some people are going to lose everything they have, jobs, too. Think heart attacks, stress related illness. Some will lose their way due to addictions as they look for ways to cope. There will be health issues associated with poverty. There will be suicides. In short, life expectancy would start to look a little different. How different? We might look at the tables for Indigenous Australians for an indication. <br /><br />For males born 2005-07, there is an 11 year difference in life expectancy! <br />(I know, there are a lot reasons for the discrepancy)<br /> <br />Assume (conservatively, I think) that life expectancy drops by just 1 year for both men and women in the under 65 group; then<br /> <br /> Lost Years due to Covid 19 Response= Pop<65 *(drop in life expectancy)<br /> =21.644 million<br /><br />If the realized mortality rate is under about 46%, then <br />Lost Years due to Response > Lost Years due to Covid 19<br /><br />You could substitute numbers from the US, or Canada, whence I write, and get similar results. Shutting down an economy has more than financial costs. And they're not trivial.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-82925051703102756692020-03-21T16:51:26.857+11:002020-03-21T16:51:26.857+11:00Hi John,
Your comments and views are almost exact...Hi John,<br /><br />Your comments and views are almost exactly the same as Tomas Pueyo in his article "The hammer and the dance", but his is longer and provides far more analysis. This is no criticism of you at all as anyone who contributes to finding the best solution is providing a service. I encourage other readers to look at the Pueyo article.<br /><br />Looking at the wood and not the trees, everyone I think agrees that getting "R" the reproductive rate below 1.0 is necessary. Currently cases outside China are going up by a factor of 10 every 2 weeks. The rate is unchanged from early March, as South Korea gets things under control, Europe ramps up and next will be Africa (if they bother testing). The world is on course to have 100 million cases by the end of April. It's simple maths, 10 million cases mid April, 1 million by the end of March, 100K mid- March (and we are already passed that, but were at 100K around 16 March) and we were at 10K start of March, 1K mid-February.<br /><br />For Australia (and the US or anywhere), how you get "R" below 1 is far less important than getting "R" below 1 as not getting "R" below 1 leads to disaster very quickly. If you think there is "panic" now in Australia with 1,000 cases so statistically only 1 in 25,000 people you might meet have COVID (and this assumes the 1,000 are all out and about which of course they are not, they are in isolation), think what it will be like when 1 million people have it and your chances of bumping into someone with it is 1 in 25. It's a "Lord of the Flies" situation <br /><br />The economic damage done to control "R" below 1 will be orders of magnitude less than not controlling it regardless of how hard you go. From what I see of ScoMo he gets this and he understands people so everyday he is turning the screw harder with new restrictions and he is doing this because it is easier to warm people up and get them to comply if you do it progressively, social distancing, everyone needs 4m2, close Bondi Beach - much easier than just closing Bondi Beach off the bat.<br /><br />The world is going to evolve into countries that have controlled it and continue to control it (its easier to control when you have beaten it down to low numbers and you can lift the restrictions somewhat) and those where it is rampant. The US response appears to be an increase in gun sales which might be useful on an individual basis, but unlikely on a collective oneAmicusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-52844200374568011092020-03-21T16:51:17.366+11:002020-03-21T16:51:17.366+11:00Hi John
Practically speaking, apparently even in...Hi John <br /><br />Practically speaking, apparently even in Wuhan those who knew they were sick got bored of being in self-isolation and started wandering outside and mingling with others. According to the WHO's Bruce Aylard, they had to be forcibly isolated. This in a country where the people fear the government. <br />The chances of most Australians, who thankfully live in a freer country and are more dismissive of being told what to do (unlike, it seems, the majority of your commenters), contentedly staying at home for six weeks and self-isolating is, in round figures, zero. <br />So what will the lockdown actually achieve? <br />It may slow the outbreak but it won't get rid of it unless you enact martial law, something that most Aussies will rebel against, thereby also ensuring the virus won't be sent packing (to quote Boris).<br />(Just wait for Americans, particularly those outside the lefty enclaves of the north-east and west coast, to rebel against any national lockdown that is being proposed there. It will not be pretty). <br />So practically speaking, calls for a lockdown are illogical and in fact counterproductive, as these calls are merely prolonging and expanding the panic that is currently occurring both in financial markets and the rest of society. <br />And that doesn't even consider the second order and third order effects of a lockdown, including a destroyed private economy, thousands of bankrupt businesses, millions of job losses, a probable housing crash here in Oz, peoples' futures destroyed. Essentially what you are proposing is turning a virus crisis into an even bigger financial crisis and forcing another Great Depression on us which, as I have noted above, will all likely be for naught.<br />The idea that the government can just step in and support businesses and the unemployed for a few months and then we will be back to normal in 3 or 6 months I think is...optimistic (I am trying not to be rude!). The reason being is that it still won't prevent massive business closures and job losses, as it won't deal with the massive demand shock that has already occurred and will be made a lot worse and more prolonged by a lockdown. <br />How this means the economic costs of a lockdown are lower than trying to mitigate the virus is beyond me.<br />And what about the social costs? <br />Ask anyone who lived through the Great Depression what it was like and what life was like for years afterwards. We're talking about tens of millions (in the USA, hundreds of millions) of people having to go through another Great Depression and its aftermath. <br />People will realise their lives are being destroyed by the lockdown, which will not only encourage them to ignore it (see above) but also probably lead to massive social unrest and upheaval. <br />How this means the social costs of a lockdown are lower than mitigation is also beyond me. <br />So instead I suggest we start being practical:<br />Protect the vulnerable (the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions) and for everyone else, advise them to wash their hands, wear masks, socially isolate etc, but encourage the latter to also get on with life and thereby stop the panic. Especially as the real case fatality rate is likely to be around 0.5% as noted by Lyall above. <br />Finally, I am amazed that the calls for lockdowns all seem to be coming from those (dare I use the term "elites"?) who can afford to stay at home for six weeks and do nothing (and perhaps even pick up great bargains when the stock market collapses further), rather than from those who form the majority of Australia's population and who would struggle to even be out of work for one week, let alone six, and whose lives will be destroyed by what you propose. Jonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-56183696031613768852020-03-21T13:13:02.471+11:002020-03-21T13:13:02.471+11:00Let us hope Lyall Taylor is correct and that R0 ca...Let us hope Lyall Taylor is correct and that R0 can be brought down with a public awareness campaign, quarantine and limitations on large gatherings. I fear this is not the case but in reality we do not know, so at this stage the path that minimises risk of unnecessary loss of life from CV19 is certainly the very sharp lockdown that John recommends.<br /><br />A challenge with the very sharp lockdown at too early a stage is that although it reduces risk, it also licenses extraordinary government action based on very limited data. At this stage the combination of lack of testing, rushed-to-market test kits, severity bias and the sheer speed with which this is occurring means there really is a huge amount of uncertainty. Licensing governments to always rush to take what appears to be the lowest risk approach based on limited information is going to set a dangerous precedent. If we can immediately give up our freedom of association and freedom of movement based on this level of data, what level of control would we not accept from our governments for other issues?<br /><br />Democracies have historically risked and given up lives to defend freedoms. The very sharp lockdown involves the reverse - giving up freedom to protect lives. It is not a decision that can be taken lightly and while being slower to take the necessary steps has already resulted in "unnecessary" loss of life, the instinct to be initially reluctant to take this step is one I personally hope our governments never lose.<br /><br />James Barlownoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-67323483164448488922020-03-21T11:46:50.146+11:002020-03-21T11:46:50.146+11:00I agree with your analysis. Western countries have...I agree with your analysis. Western countries have the expertise and resources to combat COVID-19 effectively. The problem is that Western governments are not very good at learning from history. Until a month ago, there were no votes to be gained from preparing for a pandemic.<br />"Mass murder by political elites" is quite a common crime - think of the Irish famine of the 1840s or the Bengal famine of 1943 or the Ethiopian disasters of the 1980s. Elites only fix problems which affect them - e.g. the Chinese leadership has been active in reducing air pollution (because they have to breathe the air), but much slower in addressing soil and water pollution.<br />philbrickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14094690395261247853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-67972306441469654732020-03-21T10:48:07.018+11:002020-03-21T10:48:07.018+11:00Does anyone know if any efforts have been made (or...Does anyone know if any efforts have been made (or are being considered) to calculate the time and resources required to develop a system of regular testing for ALL Australians? <br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15419634602796183642noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-77882675420724087952020-03-21T08:03:00.327+11:002020-03-21T08:03:00.327+11:00Please blog more! Especially through this crisis. ...Please blog more! Especially through this crisis. Your blogging through throught the GFC was wonderful.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-48440876675006625842020-03-21T02:59:40.041+11:002020-03-21T02:59:40.041+11:00Fantastic post. I agree.
The virus is at war with...Fantastic post. I agree.<br /><br />The virus is at war with our bodies. Kill the virus before it kills us. <br /><br />Western democracies are used to the freedom but in some circumstances those freedoms must be suspended for survival. All focus should be a on a strategy to reduce the R0<br />to well below 1 to kill it.Business Detectivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16235908621163760764noreply@blogger.com