tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post1941132276079468943..comments2024-03-08T06:18:28.125+11:00Comments on Bronte Capital: Assessing the state of Nu Skin's China business - Part 2John Hemptonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-60373786275053923272014-10-13T17:58:53.401+11:002014-10-13T17:58:53.401+11:00Hi John,
Noticed your penchant for 'same store...Hi John,<br />Noticed your penchant for 'same store sales' estimating like your http://brontecapital.blogspot.hk/2014/02/jerry-seinfeld-on-jos-bank-and-mens.html piece.<br /><br />The next time you're metering property foot traffic, check out http://www.placemeter.com/tech for your agents/friends to deploy. <br />Now you can track 24/7/365 vs only in person <8hr/day, <br />record at the entrance/exit/neighbor level and all at a consumer level pricing. Could be compelling. See more at; https://vimeo.com/70959395<br /><br />I'd be surprised if there weren't serious limitations within China however, but the metering reporting by; <br />(a) time of day,<br />(b) neighbors comparisons,<br />(c) volume, time, trend, average, max/min, etc...<br />is all very compelling for your purposes. <br /><br />Conclusion? <br />Your old smartphone now = property pedestrian tracker aka same store sales estimator, worldwide, in real-time.<br />Cheers,<br />AndrewAndrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-81866420384110457522014-10-08T06:25:37.587+11:002014-10-08T06:25:37.587+11:00I did not do the visits in Golden Week and some vi...I did not do the visits in Golden Week and some visits took place in different weeks.John Hemptonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03766274392122783128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-23890034342919743642014-10-08T04:52:16.156+11:002014-10-08T04:52:16.156+11:00Seems odd that an amendment of covenants or extens...Seems odd that an amendment of covenants or extension of duration would result in L+95 pricing on a "risky" security. Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-30952308615768095252014-10-07T21:47:43.545+11:002014-10-07T21:47:43.545+11:00Interesting piece, but one observation... It is cu...Interesting piece, but one observation... It is currently Golden Week in China - the major holiday week of the year. When were these photos and videos taken? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-2728473502824453612014-10-07T01:55:05.757+11:002014-10-07T01:55:05.757+11:00Could the cash burn be sales tax payments for sale...Could the cash burn be sales tax payments for sales that didn't happen? Usually overpaying your taxes isn't a crime. Could it be a cheap way to build evidence of a billion dollar business flow to protect the business brand/reputation and appearance of accounting integrity? Could it be a protection of their stock value and filings with the SEC? Just other potential explanations as speculation. No proof of this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-88562276939471047842014-10-06T03:08:06.109+11:002014-10-06T03:08:06.109+11:00John, it is my understanding that a well known HF ...John, it is my understanding that a well known HF (DL) mgr took a short position in NUS around the time Ackman posted his initial hit piece on HLF. Their thesis at that time was that the NUS business in China was a fraud. They pulled sales tax/income tax data on the ground in China to see if they could substantiate the sales. Supposedly they corroborated the sales data with the Chinese tax data and moved on from NUS but with a nice profit thanks to the HLF negativity. <br /><br />I assume the business is a cash business so it should be pretty simple for the NUS CFO to produce a report on what his cash sales tax paid to the government is to prove that sales are valid.<br /><br />Can you feet on the ground dig up sales tax data to put a nail in the coffin and prove or disprove their claimed sales numbers?<br /><br />BTW, always appreciate your writing. Your blog is a great place to learn how to think about and investigate a thesis.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00207806667873376367noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-20656739211053238062014-10-04T22:52:28.888+10:002014-10-04T22:52:28.888+10:00Just curious after Dmitry's comments, would th...Just curious after Dmitry's comments, would their buildings be leased space or wholly owned by NuSkin or NuSkin's in country mgmt? Keep us posted on what institutions fund this scheme! Willnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-27978955259897252262014-10-04T09:49:42.532+10:002014-10-04T09:49:42.532+10:00P.S. Kind of an addition: as an alternative to the...P.S. Kind of an addition: as an alternative to the misinformation, other possible reason for the "root" statement to be out of touch with reality is it not being a "disclosure" i.e. an attempt to convey factual information, but an ad-lib, i.e. a random line brought in to sweeten/cover/provide credibility to other things being said. Specifically, a made-up excuse for the slow business which shouldn't sound apocalyptic.Dmitryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00216625793266509034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-74993794173998064072014-10-04T09:44:46.850+10:002014-10-04T09:44:46.850+10:00John,
for starters let me point out that your int...John,<br /><br />for starters let me point out that your intellectual prop... erm, capabilities seem to be appropriately allocated to not just making money off stocks but writing this good stuff for us all to enjoy, too!<br /><br />Then I would like to do a small bit of devil's advocate too, despite the fact that I tend to agree with you. (Something that looks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck is definitely more likely to turn out to be a duck then Mother Therese). However, you wouldn't want to miss anything, would you?<br />Specifically, your investigation hinges on a line spoken by US management - the one about "only allowing meetings in the office". However it is concluded with the suggestion that information flow between US and China brunches is... less then ideal. This is internally inconsistent.<br />if it is possible for US management to be deceived regarding the fundamentals of China business, it is definitely equally possible for him to be deceived regarding the form of operations, nature of regulatory action and, more specifically, compliance. (Same holds true if he's deceiving us outsiders).<br /><br />Therefore we also have to consider a hypothesis that Nu Skin's Chinese activity proceeds outside the premise and the statement which was at the roots of your investigation is false.<br /><br />Give Mother Therese a fair fighting chance, man!<br /><br />Regards,<br />Dmitry.Dmitryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00216625793266509034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-69417771159954012502014-10-04T08:10:24.977+10:002014-10-04T08:10:24.977+10:00Some people find beauty in art, landscape, women -...Some people find beauty in art, landscape, women - but to me, this is a an intellectual beauty.Nicnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-84172116687606879782014-10-04T03:03:15.018+10:002014-10-04T03:03:15.018+10:00John,
this is not cynicism from my point of view, ...John,<br />this is not cynicism from my point of view, but based on facts. Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08749838473979475080noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4815867514277794362.post-12524599414277754862014-10-03T21:15:36.729+10:002014-10-03T21:15:36.729+10:00Thanks for the investigative piece! These pictures...Thanks for the investigative piece! These pictures are golden. MohanVnoreply@blogger.com